The clash between Monza and Udinese is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 34 % for a home victory, 29 % for a draw and 37 % for an away triumph, so the latter is the single most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, and the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9 % chance. Monza, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Udinese on the road against a similar side averages 1.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (98.9 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 % with a 6 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.5 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.4 % with a 3 % edge) and Away under 3.5 goals (94.5 % with a 4 % edge). Monza’s recent form shows two straight defeats, while Udinese comes off a draw.
Results analysis
The model’s forecast proved accurate as Udinese claimed a 3-2 away victory, extending their recent win streak after a 2-3 defeat to Monza. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was selected with a 37% probability and the model’s pick was correct. The final score matched the predicted 3-2 outcome. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.8%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%) hit, Under 5.5 (96.4%) hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.0%) hit. Only Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%) missed. The model’s predictions were largely confirmed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Monza win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 3.04
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.11
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.08
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.12
Marathonbet
3.12
Superbet
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Udinese win✓ Hit
36.8%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.49
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.59
Superbet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Dafabet
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Monza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.13
1.93
0.86
1.44
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (18)
1.78
1.22
1.67
1.00
1.89
1.44
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.73
2.40
0.60
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Udinese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Udinese
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
0.88
0.94
1.50
1.36
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.60
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.21
1.21
1.00
1.20
1.44
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
@ 1.41+5.5%
Under 1.5
27.9%
@ 2.82-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Under
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Unibet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.0%
@ 2.31+3.8%
Under 2.5
55.0%
@ 1.62-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Marathonbet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
SBO
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.7%
@ 4.35+2.1%
Under 3.5
76.3%
@ 1.20-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
Unibet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.7%
@ 1.92+3.0%
No
48.3%
@ 1.82-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
No
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
William Hil
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.67+6.1%
0-0
9.7%@ 7.65+3.7%
0-1
9.4%@ 6.54+2.4%
1-0
8.8%@ 7.57+2.8%
1-2
8.2%@ 9.04+3.1%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.39+3.4%
0-2
6.8%@ 10.71+2.5%
2-0
6.1%@ 13.84+2.8%
Monza goals ↓
Udinese goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
9.4%
6.8%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.8%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.1%
7.8%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Monza goals (down), columns = Udinese goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Monza is 0.30 points worse than Udinese in terms of average points per game (1.01 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Monza is 0.29 goals worse than Udinese in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Monza is 0.38 goals worse than Udinese in terms of goals conceded per game (1.64 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Monza
For 5.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 14.2 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Udinese
For 4.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.8
8.2
4.4
4.0
4.8
27.4
26.6
28.1
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
11.5
7.0
4.2
4.5
4.0
21.2
24.0
19.3
vs Similar (29)
8.8
9.4
8.1
4.9
3.9
5.9
27.8
25.9
29.6
vs Weaker (16)
9.5
10.1
8.9
3.6
4.1
3.0
28.6
28.6
28.6
% over line
40%
54%
27%
62%
50%
73%
84%
83%
85%
% under line
60%
46%
73%
38%
50%
27%
16%
17%
15%
This opponent (Udinese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Udinese
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.6
25.1
26.6
23.6
vs Stronger (18)
9.5
8.4
10.4
3.7
3.8
3.6
24.0
25.9
22.5
vs Similar (32)
9.2
9.3
9.2
3.8
4.1
3.6
25.7
26.9
24.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
44%
44%
54%
60%
48%
76%
80%
72%
% under line
56%
56%
56%
46%
40%
52%
24%
20%
28%
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Venezia
9.0
Fiorentina
8.8
Cagliari
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Genoa
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Torino
8.5
Parma
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.4
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.2
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Sassuolo
24.5
Torino
24.4
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.3
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.4%
@ 2.32+2.3%
Under 9.5
57.6%
@ 1.55-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.60
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.29
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.4%
@ 1.69-5.7%
Under 3.5
50.6%
@ 2.08+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.71
Superbet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.6%
Under 21.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Monza or Draw✗ Miss
53.1%
Avg Implied 61.2% · @ 1.54
Edge
-8.2%
34%
30%
37%
covers Monza + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.58
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Unibet
1.55
Monza or Udinese✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.35
Edge
+1.1%
34%
30%
37%
covers Monza + Udinese
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Draw or Udinese✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied 69.0% · @ 1.37
Edge
+7.1%
34%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Udinese
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
William Hil
1.36
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Monza over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.8%
@ 1.42-4.0%
Under
38.2%
@ 2.73+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Superbet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Monza over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.0%
@ 3.05-5.6%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.35+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.30
Marathonbet
3.18
BetVictor
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Under
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Monza over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 7.90-4.5%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.06+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.70
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Monza over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 18.25-3.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Udinese over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.3%
@ 1.33+6.2%
Under
23.7%
@ 3.13-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Unibet
3.15
Udinese over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.2%
@ 2.64+6.8%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.45-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.88
Marathonbet
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Udinese over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
17.6%
@ 6.48+3.3%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.09-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Udinese over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 15.58-0.3%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.02+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Monza, so a minus line means Monza give that many goals of a start and Udinese receive them. At -1, Monza must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Monza win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Monza)Actual: Udinese
Monza -2
2.4%
@ 17.40-2.9%
Draw -2
6.5%
@ 8.90-3.8%
Udinese +2
91.1%
@ 1.08+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Unibet
14.00
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Superbet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Monza)Actual: Udinese
Monza -1
8.9%
@ 6.91-4.2%
Draw -1
15.0%
@ 4.48-5.2%
Udinese +1
76.1%
@ 1.36+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Handicap +1 (Monza)Actual: Draw
Monza +1
53.1%
@ 1.53-6.0%
Draw +1
23.2%
@ 3.88-0.2%
Udinese -1
23.8%
@ 5.16+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.50
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Unibet
4.80
Handicap +2 (Monza)Actual: Monza
Monza +2
76.2%
@ 1.14-2.6%
Draw +2
14.6%
@ 6.74+1.3%
Udinese -2
9.2%
@ 11.31+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Away
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Monza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.57
0.36
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.56
0.44
0.56
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.27
0.80
0.00
0.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Udinese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Udinese
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.44
0.31
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.36
0.17
0.33
0.80
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.30
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.9%
@ 1.48+5.7%
Under 0.5
31.1%
@ 2.55-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Under
10Bet
2.65
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.4%
@ 3.29+5.8%
Under 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.32-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Betano
3.45
Pinnacle
3.42
Betfair
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 8.93+1.2%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.05-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.90
William Hil
9.00
Superbet
9.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Monza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.0%
@ 2.41+3.3%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.52-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Monza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 8.82-2.8%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.04+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Monza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 22.25-3.2%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Udinese over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.8%
@ 2.19+4.3%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.62-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.64
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Udinese over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
15.2%
@ 7.29+2.5%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.06-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Udinese over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.6%
@ 18.75-2.5%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Monza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.67
1.36
0.50
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.67
1.22
0.44
1.11
0.89
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.45
1.60
0.60
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Udinese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Udinese
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.44
0.62
1.00
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.17
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.74
0.40
0.90
1.11
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.31+6.7%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.30-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Under
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Betano
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.3%
@ 2.43+7.8%
Under 1.5
53.7%
@ 1.52-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Superbet
2.45
William Hil
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 5.63-0.3%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.12+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Superbet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Monza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.7%
@ 2.00-2.7%
Under
56.3%
@ 1.74+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Under
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Monza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 6.24-1.7%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.09+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.75
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Monza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 15.75-4.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Udinese over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.9%
@ 1.86+6.0%
Under
44.1%
@ 1.85-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Udinese over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.7%
@ 5.33+4.4%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.12-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Superbet
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Udinese over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 13.88-1.9%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.1%
1.08
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-2.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
83.8%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
-
-
-
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
-3.3%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.4%
1.18
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.16
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.31
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.3%
1.33
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.3%
1.20
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-2.1%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
76.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.10
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.1%
1.37
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
William Hil
1.36
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
76.1%
1.36
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
75.0%
1.35
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.1%
1.41
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.8%
1.35
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.5%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-0.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Monza
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gustavo Varela100%
Andrea Colpani33%
Omari Forson33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lorenzo Lucchesi67%
Eddy Kouadio33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Mathis Mout0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Cutrone33%
Ricardo Mangas33%
Mathis Mout33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gustavo Varela67%
Patrick Cutrone33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
Udinese
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Kamara50%
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp33%
J. Piotrowski33%
Keinan Davis33%
Oumar Solet0%
M. Vojvoda0%
Enzo Ebosse0%
J. Karlström0%
Maduka Okoye0%
Oier Zarraga0%
James Abankwah0%
Unai Gómez0%
L. Miller0%
Juan Arizala0%
I. Gueye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Piotrowski33%
J. Karlström25%
James Abankwah25%
Unai Gómez25%
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp0%
Oumar Solet0%
M. Vojvoda0%
Keinan Davis0%
Enzo Ebosse0%
H. Kamara0%
Maduka Okoye0%
Oier Zarraga0%
L. Miller0%
Juan Arizala0%
I. Gueye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp33%
Keinan Davis33%
Oumar Solet25%
M. Vojvoda25%
H. Kamara25%
J. Piotrowski0%
Enzo Ebosse0%
J. Karlström0%
Maduka Okoye0%
Oier Zarraga0%
James Abankwah0%
Unai Gómez0%
L. Miller0%
Juan Arizala0%
I. Gueye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Kamara25%
I. Gueye25%
Jürgen Ekkelenkamp0%
Oumar Solet0%
J. Piotrowski0%
M. Vojvoda0%
Keinan Davis0%
Enzo Ebosse0%
J. Karlström0%
Maduka Okoye0%
Oier Zarraga0%
James Abankwah0%
Unai Gómez0%
L. Miller0%
Juan Arizala0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Monza's squad is €87m less valuable than Udinese's (€70m vs €157m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Monza's attack is €20m less valuable than Udinese's (€26m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Monza's midfield is €15m less valuable than Udinese's (€24m vs €39m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Monza's defence is €52m less valuable than Udinese's (€20m vs €72m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Venezia
Fiorentina