Nacional are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 47 % chance of victory, a 28 % chance of a draw and a 24 % chance of an Estrela win. The model favours a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline, with a 13.5 % probability, while the average total goals is 2.5, the most probable total being two goals at 27 %. In recent form, Nacional have struggled, coming off a 0-1 loss to Guimaraes, yet they average 1.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded at home against similar opposition. Estrela, after a 2-2 draw with Alverca, average 1.2 goals scored and 1.9 conceded away versus similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0 % with a 6 % edge), Under 6.5 (97.9 % with a 4 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.5 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (94.3 % with a 2 % edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.1 % with a 4 % edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Estrela snatched a 3-2 victory, ending Nacional’s run of two straight defeats. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 47% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score was 2-3, an away win. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.2%, Under 5.5 at 94.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.3%. The match delivered a surprising away triumph, while the model’s heavy-weight predictions all proved accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nacional win✗ Miss
47.1%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.35
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.43
1xBet
2.42
Dafabet
2.41
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.26
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.33
Pinnacle
3.31
Unibet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Estrela win✓ Hit
24.5%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 3.03
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.14
Pinnacle
3.13
Superbet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.33
1.43
0.93
0.88
1.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.46
0.83
1.00
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.24
1.88
0.88
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.90
1.29
1.50
1.19
2.25
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.27
1.20
1.60
1.17
2.83
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.68
1.33
1.44
1.20
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
@ 1.29+0.8%
Under 1.5
27.0%
@ 3.37-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.48
Betano
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.96-2.0%
Under 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.83+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
2.01
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Under
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.8%
@ 3.35-3.1%
Under 3.5
75.2%
@ 1.30+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.51
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.0%
@ 1.72-3.0%
No
49.0%
@ 2.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
No
Betano
2.07
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.90+6.0%
1-0
10.8%@ 7.46+4.8%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.53+4.0%
0-0
9.2%@ 9.11+4.3%
2-0
9.0%@ 10.91+5.0%
0-1
6.9%@ 8.63+1.8%
1-2
6.3%@ 9.96+1.8%
2-2
4.7%@ 12.57+1.2%
Nacional goals ↓
Estrela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
6.9%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.0%
9.2%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.5%
4.6%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nacional goals (down), columns = Estrela goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Nacional is 0.12 points better than Estrela in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Nacional is 0.03 goals worse than Estrela in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Nacional is 0.32 goals better than Estrela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Nacional is 0.8 percentage points worse than Estrela in terms of average possession (46% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nacional
For 4.7 · Against 6.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 13.5 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estrela
For 3.2 · Against 5.3 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 14.4 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.9
9.5
5.2
6.1
4.5
27.0
26.6
27.5
vs Stronger (20)
10.2
11.1
9.3
4.8
5.9
4.0
26.8
27.6
26.1
vs Similar (29)
10.3
10.8
9.7
5.7
6.2
5.1
27.2
26.1
28.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
54%
68%
83%
54%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
32%
17%
46%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.2
8.8
5.4
5.5
5.4
30.1
30.2
30.0
vs Stronger (16)
9.4
10.2
8.4
5.2
5.2
5.3
29.1
28.8
29.6
vs Similar (34)
8.8
8.7
8.9
5.5
5.6
5.5
30.5
31.0
30.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
37%
33%
40%
78%
75%
81%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
63%
67%
60%
22%
25%
19%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.4
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.7
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.6
SC Braga
8.2
Maritimo
8.1
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.7
Estrela
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Nacional
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Sporting CP
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
GIL Vicente
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.2
Estrela
30.1
Santa Clara
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.1
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.8
Nacional
27.1
Rio Ave
27.0
Estoril
26.8
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.6
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.6%
@ 1.79-2.4%
Under 9.5
50.4%
@ 1.94+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.98
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.44+17.0%
Under 3.5
19.2%
@ 2.54-17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.35
Under
Superbet
2.67
Betano
2.40
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
85.2%
Under 21.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nacional or Draw✗ Miss
78.0%
Avg Implied 68.9% · @ 1.36
Edge
+9.1%
47%
28%
25%
covers Nacional + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Nacional or Estrela✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.8%
47%
28%
25%
covers Nacional + Estrela
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Draw or Estrela✓ Hit
48.6%
Avg Implied 59.5% · @ 1.57
Edge
-10.9%
47%
28%
25%
covers Draw + Estrela
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nacional over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.3%
@ 1.25+7.1%
Under
18.7%
@ 3.61-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Nacional over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
49.9%
@ 2.25+8.4%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.59-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.31
BetVictor
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Nacional over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.6%
@ 5.06+5.2%
Under
76.4%
@ 1.14-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Nacional over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 11.75+0.9%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.03-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Estrela over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.2%
@ 1.35-4.8%
Under
35.8%
@ 3.00+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.16
Betano
3.05
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Estrela over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.4%
@ 2.70-7.2%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.43+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Estrela over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
8.5%
@ 6.64-5.5%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.08+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Estrela over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.42-3.7%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nacional, so a minus line means Nacional give that many goals of a start and Estrela receive them. At -1, Nacional must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nacional win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nacional)Actual: Estrela
Nacional -2
12.3%
@ 9.32+2.9%
Draw -2
16.1%
@ 6.22+1.9%
Estrela +2
71.5%
@ 1.16-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Nacional)Actual: Estrela
Nacional -1
28.5%
@ 4.42+8.2%
Draw -1
23.0%
@ 3.92+0.1%
Estrela +1
48.6%
@ 1.57-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.25
Draw
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Away
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (Nacional)Actual: Draw
Nacional +1
78.0%
@ 1.36+11.8%
Draw +1
13.6%
@ 4.60-5.9%
Estrela -1
8.4%
@ 6.28-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.10
Handicap +2 (Nacional)Actual: Nacional
Nacional +2
91.6%
@ 1.09+7.9%
Draw +2
6.0%
@ 8.67-4.5%
Estrela -2
2.4%
@ 15.67-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betfair
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.36
0.43
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.00
0.62
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.65
0.62
0.50
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
0.67
0.44
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.6%
@ 1.40+2.1%
Under 0.5
31.4%
@ 2.78-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Unibet
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.83-1.1%
Under 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.39+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.00
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Under
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.5%
@ 7.34-1.2%
Under 2.5
88.5%
@ 1.07+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.50
William Hil
7.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.6%
@ 2.00+8.1%
Under
45.4%
@ 1.74-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 6.27+0.0%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.09-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.80
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
5.80
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 15.38-2.4%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Estrela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.2%
@ 2.25-6.0%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.58+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.24
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Estrela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.62-4.2%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.05+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
7.20
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Estrela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 26.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
1.07
0.50
0.44
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.85
0.83
0.67
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.59
1.25
0.38
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.79
1.00
0.62
1.31
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.27
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.68
1.11
0.67
1.00
0.70
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.6%
@ 1.23+3.4%
Under 0.5
21.4%
@ 3.74-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.1%
@ 2.12+0.2%
Under 1.5
55.9%
@ 1.66-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.20
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
Unibet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 4.53-1.9%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.17+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
William Hil
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.9%
@ 1.69+6.2%
Under
39.1%
@ 2.05-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.6%
@ 4.35+1.3%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.18-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 11.12-2.7%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Estrela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.6%
@ 1.86-4.1%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.84+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Estrela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.3%
@ 5.35-6.0%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.12+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Estrela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 14.00-4.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.7%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+16.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
91.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.3%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+0.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
81.3%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.8%
1.44
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.35
-
-
-
+17.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.22
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.0%
1.36
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+9.1%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
78.0%
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+11.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
76.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.2%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
1.35
Unibet
1.40
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.4%
1.31
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.0%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.6%
1.43
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
71.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.13
-4.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nacional
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Estrela
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leandro Antonetti100%
Abraham Marcus67%
Ianis Stoica33%
Bénito33%
Rafa Soares0%
Luan Patrick0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Eddy Doué0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eddy Doué67%
Luan Patrick33%
Leandro Antonetti33%
Bénito33%
Rafa Soares0%
Ianis Stoica0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rafa Soares33%
Ianis Stoica33%
Robinho33%
Eddy Doué33%
Luan Patrick0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Max Scholze0%
Bénito0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Antonetti67%
Rafa Soares0%
Ianis Stoica0%
Luan Patrick0%
Abraham Marcus0%
Léo Linck0%
Lovro Zvonarek0%
Max Scholze0%
Robinho0%
Bénito0%
Eddy Doué0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Nacional and Estrela have a similar squad value (both €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Nacional and Estrela have a similar attack value (both €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Nacional's midfield is €2m more valuable than Estrela's (€5m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Nacional's defence is €3m less valuable than Estrela's (€9m vs €11m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
SC Braga
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia