This highly anticipated Ligue 2 matchup between Nantes and Rodez is finely balanced, with both teams having a 35% chance of winning. The model predicts a home win, but it's far from a foregone conclusion. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. Notably, the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.5%.
Nantes has struggled recently, having lost three straight home games, including a 1-2 defeat to Laval. However, at home, they have averaged 0.67 goals per game and conceded 1.0. In contrast, Rodez has averaged 1.31 goals per game away from home, but conceded 1.38. The model suggests Over 21.5 fouls (88.1%) and Under 3.5 (78.6%) as its selections. Nantes has a 35% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 35% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The upset was clear: Nantes, the pre-match favourite with a 35 % chance of triumph, fell to a 2-5 defeat, a result that the model’s call was wrong. The win extends Rodez’s recent form, their last five featuring a win, loss, win, draw, win, and this victory is a continuation of that positive streak. The model’s selection of a home win proved incorrect, while the suggested picks delivered mixed outcomes. Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.7 %, Under 6.5 missed at 98.8 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals missed at 97.9 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals missed at 96.6 %, Under 5.5 missed at 96.4 %, and Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.3 %. The total of 7 goals far exceeded the expected 2.4.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nantes win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.82
Edge
-16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.60
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Marathonbet
3.78
10Bet
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Dafabet
3.70
Rodez win✓ Hit
35.1%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.07
Edge
+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.40
Superbet
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nantes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.73
1.07
1.73
1.00
1.73
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
2.07
1.38
2.25
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.23
0.71
1.14
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.50
-
-
3.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodez
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
1.62
0.92
1.35
1.18
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.12
1.58
0.92
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.24-4.5%
Under 1.5
29.4%
@ 3.75+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Betfair
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.96
Marathonbet
3.94
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.78
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 1.82-8.7%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.96+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.87
SBO
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Marathonbet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.01
SBO
1.98
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.3%
@ 3.04-8.6%
Under 3.5
77.7%
@ 1.35+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
888Sport
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.72-3.8%
No
49.7%
@ 2.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
No
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Betfair
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 6.56+7.5%
0-0
10.3%@ 10.86+6.2%
0-1
9.6%@ 11.28+5.6%
1-0
9.5%@ 7.15+3.2%
1-2
7.9%@ 12.30+4.2%
2-1
7.8%@ 7.62+1.9%
0-2
6.6%@ 20.61+4.4%
2-0
6.5%@ 8.42+1.2%
Nantes goals ↓
Rodez goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.6%
6.6%
2.6%
0.8%
1
9.5%
14%
7.9%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.5%
7.8%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.6%
3.1%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nantes goals (down), columns = Rodez goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Nantes is 0.25 points better than Rodez in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Nantes is 0.49 goals better than Rodez in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Nantes is 0.28 goals better than Rodez in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nantes
For 5.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.7 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rodez
For 4.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nantes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.4
9.2
4.4
4.4
4.4
26.6
25.8
27.4
vs Stronger (26)
10.1
9.8
10.4
4.7
4.8
4.5
25.9
24.7
27.2
vs Similar (22)
8.8
8.9
8.6
4.3
4.0
4.6
27.5
27.1
27.9
vs Weaker (2)
5.5
-
5.5
2.5
-
2.5
25.5
-
25.5
% over line
47%
44%
50%
66%
69%
62%
86%
80%
92%
% under line
53%
56%
50%
34%
31%
38%
14%
20%
8%
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodez
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.9
3.9
4.0
3.7
25.5
25.0
26.0
vs Stronger (6)
10.3
10.0
10.7
4.7
5.7
3.7
24.7
22.7
26.7
vs Similar (42)
10.0
10.4
9.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
25.7
25.5
26.0
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
2.0
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
56%
52%
60%
54%
57%
52%
79%
78%
80%
% under line
44%
48%
40%
46%
43%
48%
21%
22%
20%
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.4
Rodez
9.9
Grenoble
9.7
Montpellier
9.6
Nancy
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
PAU
9.4
Metz
9.4
Nantes
9.3
Dijon
9.3
Sochaux
9.2
Clermont Foot
9.1
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
8.7
Boulogne
8.6
Dunkerque
8.6
Annecy
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.7
PAU
4.5
Nantes
4.5
Boulogne
4.4
Sochaux
4.3
Annecy
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Rodez
4.1
Reims
4.1
Nancy
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Laval
4.0
Clermont Foot
3.9
RED Star FC 93
3.9
Metz
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Dijon
3.8
Grenoble
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.8
Nancy
29.1
Annecy
28.7
Boulogne
28.4
Laval
28.1
Guingamp
27.7
Dijon
27.6
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Clermont Foot
26.7
Nantes
26.6
Sochaux
26.2
Saint Etienne
26.2
PAU
25.9
Dunkerque
25.9
Rodez
25.7
Grenoble
25.6
Reims
24.8
Metz
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
1xBet
2.21
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Under
Superbet
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nantes or Draw✗ Miss
64.9%
Avg Implied 77.2% · @ 1.21
Edge
-12.2%
35%
30%
35%
covers Nantes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Nantes or Rodez✓ Hit
69.8%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.24
Edge
-5.3%
35%
30%
35%
covers Nantes + Rodez
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Draw or Rodez✓ Hit
65.3%
Avg Implied 47.8% · @ 1.95
Edge
+17.5%
35%
30%
35%
covers Draw + Rodez
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.05
SBO
1.98
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nantes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.9%
@ 1.16-10.3%
Under
30.1%
@ 4.66+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.65
888Sport
4.60
Nantes over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.7%
@ 1.81-17.7%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.92+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Betfair
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Under
Marathonbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.92
Nantes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 3.57-13.9%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.25+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Under
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Nantes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 8.14-8.1%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.05+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Rodez over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.1%
@ 1.44+5.6%
Under
29.9%
@ 2.62-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.62
Rodez over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.0%
@ 3.18+4.7%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.31-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.24
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Rodez over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.2%
@ 8.56+1.2%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.05-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Rodez over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.4%
@ 22.44-0.9%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nantes, so a minus line means Nantes give that many goals of a start and Rodez receive them. At -1, Nantes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nantes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nantes)Actual: Rodez
Nantes -2
5.0%
@ 6.34-9.2%
Draw -2
10.2%
@ 5.06-7.6%
Rodez +2
84.8%
@ 1.32+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Handicap -1 (Nantes)Actual: Rodez
Nantes -1
15.2%
@ 3.03-14.1%
Draw -1
19.5%
@ 3.58-5.4%
Rodez +1
65.3%
@ 1.94+19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Away
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.96
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Handicap +1 (Nantes)Actual: Rodez
Nantes +1
64.9%
@ 1.21-9.4%
Draw +1
19.6%
@ 5.71+3.9%
Rodez -1
15.5%
@ 9.08+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Nantes)Actual: Rodez
Nantes +2
84.5%
@ 1.05-3.9%
Draw +2
10.4%
@ 12.00+2.7%
Rodez -2
5.1%
@ 24.00+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
20.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nantes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
1.07
0.62
1.25
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.38
0.43
0.29
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
-
-
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodez
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.46
0.54
0.59
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.54
0.42
0.58
0.64
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.5%
@ 1.35-0.9%
Under 0.5
31.5%
@ 3.04+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
10Bet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.7%
@ 2.60-1.0%
Under 1.5
65.3%
@ 1.44+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Superbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.6%
@ 6.51-3.6%
Under 2.5
89.4%
@ 1.08+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nantes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 1.72-5.1%
Under
51.2%
@ 2.01+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
1.98
Nantes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
19.2%
@ 4.67-0.6%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.16+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.80
Betano
4.70
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Nantes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 11.83-3.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Rodez over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
32.5%
@ 2.45-5.3%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.49+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Rodez over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 8.86-1.6%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.60
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Rodez over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 35.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nantes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.53
0.93
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.85
0.29
0.86
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rodez
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.15
0.38
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.58
1.17
0.33
0.64
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.7%
Under 1.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.7%
Under 2.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nantes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
60.9%
Under
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodez over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodez over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodez over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+3.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
88.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
+13.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
84.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
+16.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.5%
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-3.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.8%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.7%
1.35
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+8.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.6%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Betfair
1.25
888Sport
1.25
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
+5.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nantes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Killian Corredor33%
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahmed Deuff33%
Frédéric Guilbert25%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahereba Guirassy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Lucas Perrin25%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Sissoko50%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Wilitty Younoussa0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Rodez
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ibrahima Baldé75%
Octave Joly50%
Corentin Issanchou Roubiou25%
Loni Laurent0%
Kenny Nagera0%
Lucas Margueron0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Mathis Magnin0%
Raphaël Lipinski0%
Antonin Cartillier0%
Mathis Touho0%
Jordan Mendes Correia0%
Steven Luyambula Biwa0%
Evan’s Jean-Lambert0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Loni Laurent25%
Mathis Magnin25%
Ibrahima Baldé25%
Raphaël Lipinski25%
Jordan Mendes Correia25%
Corentin Issanchou Roubiou25%
Evan’s Jean-Lambert25%
Kenny Nagera0%
Lucas Margueron0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Octave Joly0%
Antonin Cartillier0%
Mathis Touho0%
Steven Luyambula Biwa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raphaël Lipinski50%
Kenny Nagera25%
Mathis Magnin25%
Jordan Mendes Correia25%
Loni Laurent0%
Lucas Margueron0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Ibrahima Baldé0%
Octave Joly0%
Antonin Cartillier0%
Mathis Touho0%
Corentin Issanchou Roubiou0%
Steven Luyambula Biwa0%
Evan’s Jean-Lambert0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Baldé50%
Mathis Touho50%
Corentin Issanchou Roubiou25%
Loni Laurent0%
Kenny Nagera0%
Lucas Margueron0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Mathis Magnin0%
Raphaël Lipinski0%
Octave Joly0%
Antonin Cartillier0%
Jordan Mendes Correia0%
Steven Luyambula Biwa0%
Evan’s Jean-Lambert0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Nantes's squad is €67m more valuable than Rodez's (€82m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Nantes's attack is €27m more valuable than Rodez's (€31m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Nantes's midfield is €12m more valuable than Rodez's (€16m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Nantes's defence is €27m more valuable than Rodez's (€34m vs €7m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Nancy
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon