The contest between Raków Czestochowa and Jagiellonia is a tight one, with the model favouring a home victory. The probabilities are 39% for a Raków win, 28% for a draw and 33% for a Jagiellonia triumph, and the expected total goals hover at 2.7. The most likely total of 2 goals carries a 26% chance, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability. Raków, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded, while Jagiellonia, on the road, averages 2.5 scored and 0.0 conceded versus this tier. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (96.6% with a 6% edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3% with a 6% edge). The recent form shows Raków coming off a draw, while Jagiellonia is on a two-game winning run.
Results analysis
Raków Czestochowa’s run of five games, ending in a defeat, was not enough to halt Jagiellonia’s three-game winning streak. The final score was 2-5, an away win that shocked the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win call, which had a 41% probability and proved wrong. The model’s selection of Under 7.5 goals, with a 99.7% probability, hit, as did Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%). The other picks - Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (96.6%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4%) - all missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raków Częstochowa win✗ Miss
40.6%
Avg Implied 44.6% · @ 2.09
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.17
Dafabet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.51
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.76
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Jagiellonia win✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.21
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.34
Dafabet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raków Częstochowa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.43
1.00
1.25
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.50
1.00
1.20
1.22
1.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
1.06
1.67
0.89
1.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jagiellonia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jagiellonia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.13
1.50
1.31
1.50
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.38
1.17
1.83
2.50
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
1.11
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
@ 1.20-0.4%
Under 1.5
23.1%
@ 4.10+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.37
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.4%
@ 1.70-3.8%
Under 2.5
48.6%
@ 2.09+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
SBO
2.16
Betano
2.12
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.3%
@ 2.72-4.9%
Under 3.5
70.7%
@ 1.41+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
@ 1.59-1.8%
No
43.6%
@ 2.22+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.61
William Hil
1.60
No
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.53+6.4%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.02+3.3%
1-0
8.3%@ 8.55+3.1%
0-0
7.7%@ 11.97+4.0%
1-2
7.6%@ 10.23+3.3%
0-1
7.0%@ 10.71+2.9%
2-0
7.0%@ 10.63+2.8%
2-2
5.6%@ 11.65+1.8%
Raków Częstochowa goals ↓
Jagiellonia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
7.0%
5.2%
2.2%
0.7%
1
8.3%
13%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
8.9%
5.6%
2.4%
0.7%
3
3.4%
4.3%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raków Częstochowa goals (down), columns = Jagiellonia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Raków Częstochowa is 1.80 points worse than Jagiellonia in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Raków Częstochowa is 0.60 goals worse than Jagiellonia in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Raków Częstochowa is 1.20 goals worse than Jagiellonia in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Raków Częstochowa is 5.0 percentage points worse than Jagiellonia in terms of average possession (53% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raków Częstochowa
For 3.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 13.8 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jagiellonia
For 4.5 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.9 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raków Częstochowa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.7
8.9
4.1
3.7
4.4
24.6
24.7
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
8.9
8.4
9.5
4.3
4.2
4.4
24.5
24.7
24.4
vs Weaker (26)
7.6
7.0
8.3
3.8
3.4
4.4
24.6
24.8
24.4
% over line
33%
22%
45%
60%
52%
68%
76%
78%
73%
% under line
67%
78%
55%
40%
48%
32%
24%
22%
27%
This opponent (Jagiellonia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jagiellonia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.5
9.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.5
28.4
24.6
vs Stronger (3)
9.5
6.0
13.0
3.3
4.0
3.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (17)
9.3
9.2
9.4
4.2
3.7
5.0
27.6
30.0
24.6
vs Weaker (30)
9.3
10.0
8.6
3.9
4.2
3.8
25.9
27.4
24.6
% over line
45%
45%
45%
52%
54%
50%
70%
77%
64%
% under line
55%
55%
55%
48%
46%
50%
30%
23%
36%
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
10.7
Wieczysta Kraków
10.4
Pogon Szczecin
10.3
Zaglebie Lubin
10.2
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Radomiak Radom
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.2
Lech Poznan
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
10.1
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Piast Gliwice
10.0
GKS Katowice
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.5
Widzew Łódź
9.1
Legia Warszawa
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.3
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.8
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Slask Wroclaw
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.5
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Pogon Szczecin
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Wisla Plock
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
GKS Katowice
3.8
Wisla Krakow
3.7
Piast Gliwice
3.6
Wieczysta Kraków
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.9
Wieczysta Kraków
26.6
Widzew Łódź
26.5
Jagiellonia
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Wisla Krakow
25.7
Korona Kielce
25.6
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Motor Lublin
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Slask Wroclaw
24.6
Piast Gliwice
24.2
Lech Poznan
23.9
GKS Katowice
23.8
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.9
Wisla Plock
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
40.8%
@ 1.94-7.3%
Under 9.5
59.2%
@ 1.79+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.84
Unibet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.8%
@ 1.52-1.6%
Under 3.5
41.2%
@ 2.32+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
Under
Superbet
2.32
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.9%
Under 21.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Raków Częstochowa or Draw✗ Miss
68.3%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.32
Edge
-2.5%
41%
28%
31%
covers Raków Częstochowa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.33
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Raków Częstochowa or Jagiellonia✓ Hit
69.6%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-4.4%
41%
28%
31%
covers Raków Częstochowa + Jagiellonia
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Draw or Jagiellonia✓ Hit
62.1%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.70
Edge
+6.9%
41%
28%
31%
covers Draw + Jagiellonia
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
SBO
1.72
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.4%
@ 1.18-7.4%
Under
28.6%
@ 4.35+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Under
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.5%
@ 1.91-13.1%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.81+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 3.86-10.8%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.22+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.84
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Raków Częstochowa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 8.66-7.0%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.05+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Jagiellonia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.4%
@ 1.31-3.6%
Under
32.6%
@ 3.21+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Betano
3.30
Superbet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Jagiellonia over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.9%
@ 2.53-5.8%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.47+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.55
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Under
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Jagiellonia over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
10.4%
@ 5.83-5.5%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.10+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Jagiellonia over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
2.7%
@ 13.75-4.2%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Raków Częstochowa, so a minus line means Raków Częstochowa give that many goals of a start and Jagiellonia receive them. At -1, Raków Częstochowa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Raków Częstochowa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Jagiellonia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jagiellonia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.88
0.50
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.38
0.83
0.50
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.53
0.78
0.44
0.90
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.1%
@ 1.32-2.4%
Under 0.5
31.9%
@ 3.15+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.29
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
William Hil
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.48-4.1%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.48+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 5.79-4.9%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.10+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
45.3%
@ 1.79-6.8%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.94+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.90
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 4.93-6.4%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.14+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 12.38-5.0%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Jagiellonia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.4%
@ 2.16-0.7%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.63+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
Under
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
Jagiellonia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.7%
@ 6.82-3.9%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.08+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Jagiellonia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 17.25-4.0%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raków Częstochowa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.07
0.64
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.75
1.22
0.56
0.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Jagiellonia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jagiellonia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.62
0.81
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.58
0.89
0.56
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.0%
@ 1.18-1.5%
Under 0.5
23.0%
@ 4.31+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.9%
@ 1.89-9.2%
Under 1.5
60.1%
@ 1.82+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 3.75-11.7%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.23+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.2%
@ 1.55-6.9%
Under
46.8%
@ 2.33+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.30
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.0%
@ 3.59-8.8%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.25+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 9.23-6.5%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Jagiellonia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.6%
@ 1.79-4.1%
Under
52.4%
@ 1.92+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Jagiellonia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
12.8%
@ 4.94-6.0%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.14+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Jagiellonia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
2.4%
@ 12.62-5.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+9.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.08
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.14
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+11.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
86.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-
-
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.25
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.7%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
1.31
Superbet
1.31
-
-
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.4%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
-7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.0%
1.48
Pinnacle
1.53
Unibet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
Betano
1.45
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.7%
1.41
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
+4.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Raków Częstochowa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mahir Emreli60%
Patryk Makuch40%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby33%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Didí Gaucho67%
Fran Tudor33%
Karol Struski33%
Michael Ameyaw25%
Mahir Emreli20%
Bogdan Racovițan20%
Erick Otieno0%
Patryk Makuch0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mahir Emreli20%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin20%
Jean Carlos Silva20%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Patryk Makuch0%
Oskar Repka0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mahir Emreli60%
Patryk Makuch20%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Jagiellonia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nik Prelec75%
Youssuf Sylla33%
Jesús Imaz25%
Sergio Lozano25%
Guilherme Montóia25%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Taras Romanczuk0%
Kamil Jóźwiak0%
Kajetan Szmyt0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Norbert Wojtuszek0%
Apostolos Konstantopoulos0%
Bernardo Vital0%
Sławomir Abramowicz0%
Jeremy Agbonifo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme Montóia50%
Kamil Jóźwiak33%
Apostolos Konstantopoulos33%
Bernardo Vital33%
Jeremy Agbonifo33%
Nik Prelec25%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Taras Romanczuk0%
Jesús Imaz0%
Kajetan Szmyt0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Norbert Wojtuszek0%
Sergio Lozano0%
Youssuf Sylla0%
Sławomir Abramowicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kajetan Szmyt25%
Sergio Lozano25%
Nik Prelec25%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Taras Romanczuk0%
Jesús Imaz0%
Kamil Jóźwiak0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Norbert Wojtuszek0%
Apostolos Konstantopoulos0%
Bernardo Vital0%
Youssuf Sylla0%
Sławomir Abramowicz0%
Guilherme Montóia0%
Jeremy Agbonifo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesús Imaz50%
Kajetan Szmyt25%
Sergio Lozano25%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Taras Romanczuk0%
Kamil Jóźwiak0%
Rodrigo Conceição0%
Norbert Wojtuszek0%
Nik Prelec0%
Apostolos Konstantopoulos0%
Bernardo Vital0%
Youssuf Sylla0%
Sławomir Abramowicz0%
Guilherme Montóia0%
Jeremy Agbonifo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Raków Częstochowa's squad is €3m more valuable than Jagiellonia's (€33m vs €30m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Raków Częstochowa's attack is €2m less valuable than Jagiellonia's (€9m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Raków Częstochowa's midfield is €11m more valuable than Jagiellonia's (€14m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Raków Częstochowa's defence is €6m less valuable than Jagiellonia's (€9m vs €15m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków