Rodez vs PAU Result & Analysis

Rodez, fresh from a 5-2 win over Nantes, will look to keep the momentum, while PAU, after a 0-1 loss to Nancy, will aim to bounce back. The model favours a home win, with a 49 % chance, a 25 % chance of a draw and a 26 % chance of an away victory. The expected total goals is 3.2, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1 % probability. Rodez averages 1.58 goals scored and 0.92 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas PAU averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.58 conceded away against similar opponents. The suggested picks include: Away under 2.5 HT goals 98.8 %, Under 7.5 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals 97.0 % (edge 5 %), Under 6.5 95.5 % (edge 2 %), Away under 3.5 goals 95.4 % (edge 4 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals 93.5 % (edge 3 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals 91.0 % (edge 3 %) and Over 19.5 fouls 91.0 %.

The surprise came early as the pre-match favourite, Rodez, failed to secure the win, the match ending in a 2-2 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 49% probability, but this call was wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.5%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.1%, while Away under 1.5 HT goals missed at 92.4%. The game’s form narrative shows both sides coming off a draw, with Rodez’s recent run of D W L W D and PAU’s D L W L L.