This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.07
1.27
1.13
1.60
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.06
1.22
1.00
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
1.00
1.40
1.20
1.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
62.2%
Under 1.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.8%
Under 2.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.3%
Under 3.5
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
14.2%
1-0 ✓
12.5%
0-1
11.1%
2-0
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
Shelbourne goals ↓
Waterford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.6%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.5%
7.3%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.7%
2.6%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shelbourne goals (down), columns = Waterford goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shelbourne
1.75
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.64
Derry City
1.53
Galway United
1.44
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Waterford
1.25
Bohemians
1.17
Drogheda United
1.00
Dundalk
0.72
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Shelbourne is 0.50 points better than Waterford in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Patrick's Athl.
1.42
Shamrock Rovers
1.39
Derry City
1.33
Waterford
1.19
Drogheda United
1.19
Shelbourne
1.11
Sligo Rovers
1.11
Bohemians
1.08
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Galway United
0.92
Dundalk
0.64
Shelbourne is 0.08 goals worse than Waterford in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shelbourne
0.75
Galway United
0.81
Derry City
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.97
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Bohemians
1.19
Waterford
1.31
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.42
Drogheda United
1.59
Bray Wanderers
3.00
Shelbourne is 0.56 goals better than Waterford in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Derry City
56%
Shelbourne
53%
St Patrick's Athl.
53%
Bohemians
52%
Waterford
50%
Dundalk
48%
Sligo Rovers
48%
Drogheda United
39%
Galway United
39%
Shelbourne is 4.0 percentage points better than Waterford in terms of average possession (53% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Shelbourne
For 4.3 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.6 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
For 3.9 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 14.4 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shelbourne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.5
8.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
26.1
27.3
25.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
8.9
9.5
8.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
26.1
27.3
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
40%
41%
52%
48%
56%
78%
87%
71%
% under line
59%
60%
59%
48%
52%
44%
22%
13%
29%
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.9
8.6
1.7
2.0
1.5
25.2
27.3
23.4
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
5.0
4.0
6.0
23.5
26.0
21.0
vs Similar (23)
9.6
11.0
8.3
3.3
4.1
2.6
25.5
27.5
23.7
vs Weaker (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
69%
88%
50%
28%
32%
24%
80%
100%
62%
% under line
31%
12%
50%
72%
68%
76%
20%
0%
38%
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
11.0
Galway United
10.5
Shamrock Rovers
10.4
Waterford
9.8
Derry City
9.6
St Patrick's Athl.
9.6
Drogheda United
9.5
Sligo Rovers
8.9
Shelbourne
8.9
Dundalk
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
5.9
Shelbourne
5.8
Sligo Rovers
5.4
Waterford
5.4
Bohemians
5.3
Dundalk
5.3
Derry City
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Galway United
4.5
Drogheda United
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
26.7
Sligo Rovers
26.6
Shelbourne
26.1
St Patrick's Athl.
25.9
Waterford
25.2
Bohemians
24.7
Galway United
24.2
Derry City
24.2
Shamrock Rovers
23.7
Drogheda United
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
77.0%
Under 3.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.4%
Under 21.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.38
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.40
0.57
0.43
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.53
0.40
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.50
0.78
0.44
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
0.20
0.20
0.40
0.80
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
0.71
0.36
1.00
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.33
0.71
0.36
1.00
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.56
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.80
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Shelbourne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sean Boyd30%
Will Jarvis22%
Aiden O'Brien14%
John Martin13%
Rayhaan Tulloch9%
Evan Caffrey9%
Alistair Coote7%
Harry Wood7%
Liam Burt6%
Matthew Smith6%
Mark Coyle6%
Gavin Molloy5%
John O'Sullivan4%
Tyreke Wilson3%
Sean Gannon0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Shane Farrell0%
Dean Williams0%
Paddy Barrett0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Jad Hakiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Coyle50%
Sean Gannon41%
Paddy Barrett34%
John Martin33%
Shane Griffin31%
John O'Sullivan28%
Shane Farrell24%
Sean Boyd22%
Jonathan Lunney22%
Alistair Coote21%
Harry Wood21%
Liam Burt16%
Matthew Smith16%
Tyreke Wilson14%
Evan Caffrey14%
Dean Williams13%
Kameron Ledwidge9%
Conor Kearns5%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
Aiden O'Brien0%
Sam Bone0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Will Jarvis0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Will Jarvis15%
John Martin10%
Tyreke Wilson9%
Sean Boyd7%
Harry Wood7%
Matthew Smith6%
Shane Farrell6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Liam Burt3%
Sean Gannon3%
Jonathan Lunney3%
Mark Coyle3%
Paddy Barrett3%
Conor Kearns3%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
Aiden O'Brien0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Sam Bone0%
Shane Griffin0%
Dean Williams0%
Alistair Coote0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sean Boyd19%
Will Jarvis19%
Aiden O'Brien14%
Alistair Coote7%
Harry Wood7%
Liam Burt6%
Evan Caffrey6%
Mark Coyle3%
Paddy Barrett3%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Matthew Smith0%
Sean Gannon0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
John Martin0%
Shane Griffin0%
Conor Kearns0%
Shane Farrell0%
Dean Williams0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Gavin Molloy0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pádraig Amond29%
Maleace Asamoah24%
Christie Pattison17%
Sam Bellis14%
Samuel Glenfield12%
Dean McMenamy11%
Connor Parsons9%
Ben McCormack7%
Darragh Power6%
Niall O'Keeffe6%
Robert McCourt5%
Darragh Leahy3%
Sam Sargeant0%
Louis Jones0%
Barry Baggley0%
Kacper Radkowski0%
Ryan Burke0%
Grant Horton0%
Rowan McDonald0%
Shane Flynn0%
Harvey Macadam0%
Joseph Forde0%
Connor Evans0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Samuel Glenfield62%
Niall O'Keeffe39%
Ryan Burke26%
Kacper Radkowski24%
Dean McMenamy22%
Ben McCormack21%
Darragh Leahy21%
Darragh Power21%
Robert McCourt20%
Rowan McDonald19%
Connor Parsons19%
Maleace Asamoah18%
Harvey Macadam15%
Grant Horton14%
Shane Flynn14%
Connor Evans8%
Pádraig Amond3%
Sam Sargeant0%
Louis Jones0%
Barry Baggley0%
Christie Pattison0%
Sam Bellis0%
Joseph Forde0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barry Baggley12%
Ben McCormack11%
Connor Parsons9%
Darragh Leahy9%
Grant Horton9%
Christie Pattison8%
Maleace Asamoah6%
Pádraig Amond6%
Dean McMenamy4%
Sam Sargeant3%
Rowan McDonald3%
Darragh Power3%
Louis Jones0%
Kacper Radkowski0%
Robert McCourt0%
Ryan Burke0%
Niall O'Keeffe0%
Sam Bellis0%
Shane Flynn0%
Samuel Glenfield0%
Harvey Macadam0%
Joseph Forde0%
Connor Evans0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maleace Asamoah18%
Pádraig Amond17%
Dean McMenamy11%
Christie Pattison8%
Ryan Burke4%
Ben McCormack4%
Connor Parsons3%
Darragh Leahy3%
Grant Horton3%
Sam Sargeant0%
Louis Jones0%
Barry Baggley0%
Kacper Radkowski0%
Robert McCourt0%
Darragh Power0%
Niall O'Keeffe0%
Rowan McDonald0%
Sam Bellis0%
Shane Flynn0%
Samuel Glenfield0%
Harvey Macadam0%
Joseph Forde0%
Connor Evans0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Gbemi Arubi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
BW (1)
€0m
Shelbourne's squad is €1m more valuable than Waterford's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Shelbourne and Waterford have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Shelbourne and Waterford have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
BW (0)
€0m
Shelbourne and Waterford have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
Galway United
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Dundalk
Bray Wanderers