Sporting CP are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 74% chance of a home win, a 17% chance of a draw and a 9% chance of an away win. The 74% probability reflects Sporting’s strong home form against weaker opponents, averaging 3.18 goals scored and only 0.73 conceded, while Torreense’s away form is modest, conceding 2.5 goals on average in recent fixtures. The model’s pick is a home win, and it expects 3.2 goals in total, most likely a 3-goal match with a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 12.1% probability. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.3%, Home +2 handicap at 97.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.9%, Under 6.5 at 95.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 92.0% and Home over 0.5 goals at 91.4%. Sporting CP’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while Torreense is coming off a draw, yet the venue advantage and scoring edge keep Sporting as the dominant side in this encounter.
The upset came early as Sporting CP, the pre-match favourite, fell to a 1-2 defeat against Torreense. The model had tipped a home win with a 74% probability, but the call was wrong. Sporting’s recent form - two consecutive wins - had suggested a strong outing, yet the away side secured the victory. The model’s selections all hit: Away under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 7.5 (98.3%), Home +2 handicap (97.4%), Over 19.5 fouls (96.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Over 21.5 fouls (92.0%) and Home over 0.5 goals (91.4%). The final score of 1-2 confirmed the unexpected outcome, leaving the model’s favourite on the wrong side of the pitch.
Sporting CP| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.27 | 0.93 | 2.60 | 0.80 | 1.93 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 2.74 | 1.00 | 3.18 | 0.73 | 2.33 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Torreense| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.87 | 1.53 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.47 | 0.74 | 1.60 | 0.70 | 1.33 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.91 | 1.09 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Torreense goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 12% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 10.0% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 6.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Sporting CP
Torreense
Sporting CP| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 26.4 | 25.8 | 27.1 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 8.7 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 25.6 |
| vs Weaker (38) | 10.4 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 26.9 | 26.2 | 27.8 |
| % over line | 52% | 50% | 54% | 60% | 48% | 72% | 79% | 71% | 88% |
| % under line | 48% | 50% | 46% | 40% | 52% | 28% | 21% | 29% | 12% |
Torreense| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 20.3 | 21.0 | 19.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (32) | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 19.9 | 23.0 | 13.8 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 12.8 | - | 12.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 21.2 | 5.0 | 25.2 |
| % over line | 38% | 29% | 50% | 62% | 68% | 56% | 59% | 67% | 50% |
| % under line | 62% | 71% | 50% | 38% | 32% | 44% | 41% | 33% | 50% |
Sporting CP| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 1.13 | 0.35 | 1.36 | 0.09 | 0.92 | 0.58 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+47pp vs league) | |||||
Torreense| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.64 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Sporting CP| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 0.63 | 1.60 | 0.67 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.71 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 1.61 | 0.65 | 1.82 | 0.64 | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
Torreense| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.05 | 0.32 | 1.10 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.17 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 3.5 goals | 99.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 7.5 | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 97.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 95.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 92.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 91.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 91.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home +1 handicap | 91.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 84.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 83.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 82.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 82.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 76.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 9.5 corners | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 72.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Sporting CP| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
Torreense| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 28/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 88 | 82% | 2.6 | 66 | 18 | +48 | 2.5 | 71% | 56% | 24% | 8.6 | 35% | 5.5 | 82% | 26.4 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 82 | 74% | 2.4 | 89 | 24 | +65 | 3.3 | 91% | 71% | 35% | 9.9 | 53% | 5.2 | 62% | 25.9 | 79% | 460 | 190 | 72 | 198 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 62% |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 80 | 68% | 2.4 | 74 | 25 | +49 | 2.9 | 88% | 71% | 32% | 10.0 | 56% | 5.3 | 73% | 26.8 | 74% | 288 | 105 | 93 | 90 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 4 | SC Braga | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 64 | 36 | +28 | 2.9 | 76% | 68% | 38% | 8.4 | 32% | 5.0 | 79% | 23.5 | 62% | 215 | 100 | 46 | 69 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 63% |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 56 | 44% | 1.6 | 42 | 29 | +13 | 2.1 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 10.4 | 56% | 5.1 | 68% | 32.1 | 94% | 109 | 51 | 17 | 41 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 51% |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 34 | 50 | 38% | 1.5 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 2.5 | 76% | 53% | 26% | 9.5 | 50% | 5.1 | 67% | 28.2 | 85% | 61 | 37 | 5 | 19 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 2.5 | 74% | 50% | 21% | 8.4 | 35% | 4.9 | 68% | 29.2 | 94% | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 8 | Guimaraes | 34 | 42 | 35% | 1.2 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 44% | 24% | 8.4 | 38% | 5.2 | 74% | 29.6 | 88% | 73 | 34 | 26 | 13 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 9 | Arouca | 34 | 42 | 35% | 1.2 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.3 | 79% | 68% | 50% | 9.0 | 44% | 5.7 | 79% | 25.9 | 79% | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 50% |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 39 | 29% | 1.1 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 3.3 | 76% | 62% | 53% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.9 | 88% | 25.8 | 82% | 57 | 25 | 10 | 22 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 53% |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 39 | 29% | 1.1 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.9 | 64% | 26.4 | 71% | 52 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 12 | Santa Clara | 34 | 36 | 26% | 1.1 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 2.1 | 56% | 35% | 15% | 9.0 | 50% | 6.1 | 85% | 29.5 | 94% | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 34 | 36 | 24% | 1.1 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 2.7 | 82% | 59% | 29% | 10.8 | 68% | 5.2 | 62% | 27.4 | 79% | 53 | 21 | 5 | 26 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 34 | 26% | 1.0 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 2.4 | 74% | 41% | 18% | 10.8 | 68% | 5.7 | 74% | 27.2 | 88% | 27 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 33 | 57 | -24 | 2.5 | 75% | 42% | 28% | 10.0 | 50% | 5.6 | 83% | 29.8 | 92% | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 41% |
| 16 | Estrela | 34 | 30 | 18% | 0.9 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 2.8 | 74% | 53% | 38% | 9.1 | 35% | 5.6 | 82% | 29.7 | 97% | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 28 | 18% | 0.8 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 2.4 | 68% | 50% | 29% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.4 | 71% | 26.8 | 82% | 25 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 18 | AVS | 34 | 21 | 9% | 0.6 | 27 | 67 | -40 | 2.8 | 79% | 59% | 38% | 9.5 | 47% | 5.0 | 67% | 24.7 | 71% | 19 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 39% |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1.0 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 11.5 | 50% | 6.5 | 100% | 25.5 | 100% | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 60% |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Maritimo | 34 | 66 | 59% | 1.9 | 50 | 29 | +21 | 2.3 | 65% | 38% | 24% | 7.7 | 20% | 6.4 | 91% | 30.1 | 93% | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 59 | 50% | 1.7 | 58 | 33 | +25 | 2.7 | 68% | 56% | 35% | 9.8 | 54% | 6.1 | 91% | 29.1 | 100% | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 3 | Torreense | 34 | 59 | 53% | 1.7 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 2.3 | 59% | 44% | 21% | 10.2 | 38% | 5.4 | 82% | 23.1 | 62% | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 4 | FC Porto B | 34 | 51 | 44% | 1.5 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 2.4 | 68% | 50% | 21% | 9.6 | 55% | 6.3 | 82% | 29.4 | 100% | 57 | 19 | 10 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 5 | Vizela | 34 | 51 | 41% | 1.5 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 2.3 | 65% | 41% | 21% | 9.1 | 33% | 6.6 | 88% | 29.9 | 78% | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 | União de Leiria | 34 | 50 | 38% | 1.5 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 2.9 | 74% | 59% | 44% | 10.2 | 69% | 5.9 | 82% | 30.6 | 100% | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 7 | Leixoes | 34 | 50 | 44% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.0 | 82% | 59% | 35% | 8.7 | 27% | 6.1 | 91% | 30.1 | 91% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 46 | 35% | 1.4 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 2.3 | 62% | 44% | 18% | 9.3 | 29% | 7.0 | 94% | 29.1 | 86% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 42% |
| 9 | Chaves | 34 | 45 | 38% | 1.3 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 2.4 | 65% | 35% | 24% | 8.3 | 38% | 6.3 | 82% | 27.9 | 85% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 10 | Benfica B | 34 | 44 | 32% | 1.3 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 2.6 | 79% | 44% | 15% | 9.6 | 50% | 6.9 | 91% | 31.8 | 92% | 76 | 15 | 8 | 53 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 11 | Felgueiras 1932 | 34 | 44 | 32% | 1.3 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 2.1 | 62% | 32% | 18% | 10.2 | 56% | 5.9 | 79% | 29.4 | 89% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 12 | Farense | 36 | 44 | 31% | 1.2 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 1.9 | 61% | 31% | 8% | 9.7 | 44% | 5.9 | 86% | 31.0 | 100% | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 13 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 34 | 43 | 32% | 1.3 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 2.8 | 76% | 59% | 32% | 10.4 | 54% | 5.9 | 85% | 30.1 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 14 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 42 | 38% | 1.2 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 2.2 | 53% | 44% | 18% | 8.3 | 40% | 6.0 | 70% | 25.0 | 80% | 76 | 37 | 18 | 21 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 15 | Penafiel | 34 | 41 | 32% | 1.2 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 2.2 | 65% | 38% | 15% | 11.2 | 80% | 5.6 | 71% | 27.1 | 70% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 49% |
| 16 | Portimonense | 34 | 40 | 32% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.6 | 68% | 41% | 24% | 10.6 | 78% | 5.7 | 88% | 32.9 | 100% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 39 | 26% | 1.1 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 2.4 | 68% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 46% | 6.3 | 82% | 29.5 | 85% | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 34 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 2.4 | 65% | 44% | 24% | 9.2 | 55% | 5.2 | 61% | 29.3 | 91% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 19 | CF Os Belenenses | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | - |