The encounter between Strasbourg and Reims is a tight one, with the model favouring a Strasbourg victory but the margins are razor-thin. The probabilities are 37% for a home win, 28% for a draw and 35% for an away win, making the home side the slight favourite. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most probable total being two goals, a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability, even though the overall goal expectation is higher.
Strasbourg, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, while Reims, on the road, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similar opposition. This suggests Strasbourg should find the net more often and keep the defence tighter than Reims.
The model’s selections are all very confident: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Under 5.5 (93.8%), Under 4.5 (85.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.3%) and Home +2 handicap (83.5%). Each is presented with its exact probability.
Strasbourg’s recent form, still rattled by a defeat, was enough to keep the model’s home-win call alive, and the 2-1 victory confirmed it. The prediction’s 37% probability for a home win proved accurate, and the 2-goal total, the most likely scoreline, also materialised. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Under 5.5 (93.8%), Under 4.5 (85.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.3%) and Home +2 handicap (83.5%). Strasbourg’s win extended their run, while Reims, unbeaten in five, fell short, leaving the model’s selections largely correct.
Strasbourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.17 | 1.94 | 0.88 | 1.93 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.63 | 1.26 | 1.70 | 0.90 | 1.56 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 2.56 | 0.67 | 2.60 | 0.60 | 2.50 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
Reims| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 0.73 | 1.62 | 0.62 | 1.59 | 0.82 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.86 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 1.83 | 0.74 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.85 | 0.69 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
| Reims goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 13% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Strasbourg
Reims
Strasbourg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 23.5 | 22.0 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 22.7 | 20.5 | 27.0 |
| vs Similar (30) | 8.3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 23.7 | 22.2 | 25.1 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 9.1 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 23.3 | 21.9 | 25.1 |
| % over line | 37% | 35% | 39% | 62% | 48% | 78% | 67% | 65% | 70% |
| % under line | 63% | 65% | 61% | 38% | 52% | 22% | 33% | 35% | 30% |
Reims| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 23.7 | 22.6 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 11.0 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 16.2 | 15.0 | 16.7 |
| vs Similar (22) | 9.8 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 25.0 | 23.3 | 26.3 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 8.1 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 23.7 | 22.7 | 24.6 |
| % over line | 40% | 25% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 47% | 70% | 55% | 81% |
| % under line | 60% | 75% | 48% | 54% | 55% | 53% | 30% | 45% | 19% |
Strasbourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.37 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 1.07 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.63 | 0.32 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.50 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
Reims| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.53 | 0.92 | 0.31 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.29 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 1.00 | 0.52 | 1.10 | 0.40 | 0.92 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Strasbourg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.80 | 1.19 | 0.62 | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.78 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.22 | 0.33 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Reims| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.20 | 0.69 | 0.31 | 0.82 | 0.12 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.57 | 0.14 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 0.83 | 0.22 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.92 | 0.08 |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+54pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 97.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 95.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 93.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 85.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 83.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 83.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 82.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 78.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś— Miss |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Home or Away | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 70.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś“ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/12/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/12/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/08/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/03/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/11/21 | H | 1-1 |
Strasbourg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 05/02/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/02/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/01/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 18/01/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 10/01/26 | A | 0-6 | |
| 03/01/26 | A | 1-1 |
Reims| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/02/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/02/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 30/01/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/01/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/01/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/01/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/01/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 76 | 71% | 2.2 | 74 | 29 | +45 | 3.0 | 76% | 62% | 32% | 9.5 | 41% | 2.9 | 26% | 18.6 | 26% | 1477 | 638 | 430 | 409 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 2 | Lens | 34 | 70 | 65% | 2.1 | 66 | 35 | +31 | 3.0 | 82% | 65% | 29% | 10.4 | 53% | 4.6 | 70% | 24.7 | 59% | 187 | 52 | 24 | 112 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 3 | Lille | 34 | 61 | 53% | 1.8 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 2.6 | 65% | 38% | 21% | 9.5 | 44% | 4.5 | 68% | 24.2 | 68% | 312 | 133 | 102 | 76 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 4 | Lyon | 34 | 60 | 53% | 1.8 | 53 | 40 | +13 | 2.7 | 65% | 56% | 32% | 10.9 | 50% | 4.8 | 71% | 26.4 | 79% | 293 | 122 | 82 | 89 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 5 | Marseille | 34 | 59 | 53% | 1.7 | 63 | 45 | +18 | 3.2 | 74% | 62% | 41% | 8.8 | 38% | 4.4 | 73% | 23.7 | 56% | 225 | 91 | 68 | 66 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 57% |
| 6 | Rennes | 34 | 59 | 50% | 1.7 | 59 | 50 | +9 | 3.2 | 82% | 71% | 50% | 10.6 | 62% | 4.3 | 66% | 24.4 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 7 | Monaco | 34 | 54 | 47% | 1.6 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 3.4 | 74% | 65% | 53% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.2 | 62% | 23.8 | 65% | 326 | 148 | 84 | 93 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 54% |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 34 | 53 | 44% | 1.6 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 3.1 | 76% | 65% | 35% | 8.9 | 44% | 3.8 | 56% | 24.1 | 74% | 304 | 112 | 56 | 136 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 45 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 2.9 | 88% | 44% | 35% | 8.9 | 47% | 4.1 | 55% | 22.8 | 50% | 87 | 20 | 32 | 35 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 44 | 36% | 1.3 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 55% | 33% | 9.6 | 55% | 4.5 | 70% | 25.5 | 82% | 115 | 30 | 39 | 46 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 11 | Paris FC | 34 | 44 | 32% | 1.3 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 2.9 | 74% | 56% | 32% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.9 | 47% | 21.4 | 50% | 176 | 59 | 54 | 62 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 39 | 29% | 1.1 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 2.9 | 82% | 50% | 29% | 9.7 | 47% | 3.8 | 55% | 24.4 | 65% | 64 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 13 | Angers | 34 | 36 | 26% | 1.1 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 2.3 | 65% | 29% | 18% | 8.8 | 41% | 3.2 | 45% | 22.4 | 53% | 73 | 30 | 11 | 32 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 14 | Nice | 36 | 36 | 22% | 1.0 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 42% | 10.8 | 67% | 4.0 | 56% | 23.6 | 53% | 152 | 62 | 31 | 60 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 15 | Le Havre | 34 | 35 | 21% | 1.0 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 2.2 | 62% | 32% | 18% | 9.1 | 44% | 4.2 | 65% | 27.8 | 94% | 55 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 16 | Auxerre | 34 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 2.3 | 62% | 44% | 26% | 9.5 | 41% | 4.9 | 74% | 27.2 | 85% | 84 | 23 | 28 | 33 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 17 | Nantes | 33 | 23 | 15% | 0.7 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 2.5 | 67% | 45% | 21% | 9.4 | 48% | 4.7 | 73% | 26.8 | 85% | 82 | 31 | 16 | 34 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 17 | 9% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.2 | 74% | 62% | 41% | 9.5 | 41% | 3.5 | 53% | 22.6 | 59% | 43 | 17 | 18 | 8 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 49% |
| 19 | Rodez | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 38% |
| 20 | Saint Etienne | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 1.7 | 0% | 19.3 | 33% | 93 | 54 | 11 | 28 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 21 | RED Star FC 93 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 63% |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Estac Troyes | 36 | 73 | 61% | 2.0 | 64 | 34 | +30 | 2.7 | 69% | 56% | 31% | 8.3 | 42% | 4.5 | 57% | 27.8 | 92% | 36 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2 | Le Mans | 36 | 64 | 44% | 1.8 | 50 | 31 | +19 | 2.2 | 58% | 33% | 22% | 9.8 | 58% | 4.6 | 74% | 27.3 | 89% | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 | Saint Etienne | 36 | 63 | 53% | 1.8 | 62 | 40 | +22 | 2.8 | 75% | 58% | 31% | 9.0 | 31% | 4.1 | 56% | 26.9 | 89% | 93 | 54 | 11 | 28 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 4 | Reims | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 2.6 | 64% | 44% | 33% | 8.6 | 33% | 4.4 | 58% | 25.5 | 78% | 72 | 38 | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 5 | Rodez | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 47 | 41 | +6 | 2.4 | 78% | 47% | 17% | 9.9 | 53% | 4.3 | 63% | 26.7 | 86% | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 40% |
| 6 | Annecy | 36 | 55 | 44% | 1.5 | 51 | 41 | +10 | 2.6 | 72% | 56% | 22% | 8.4 | 36% | 4.2 | 60% | 29.1 | 89% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 45% |
| 7 | RED Star FC 93 | 33 | 55 | 45% | 1.7 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 2.5 | 67% | 52% | 27% | 8.3 | 45% | 3.8 | 59% | 27.0 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 8 | RS Red Star | 33 | 55 | 45% | 1.7 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 2.5 | 67% | 52% | 27% | 8.3 | 45% | 3.6 | 48% | 27.0 | 76% | 15 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | Montpellier | 36 | 53 | 39% | 1.5 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 2.1 | 67% | 28% | 17% | 9.8 | 53% | 4.2 | 67% | 29.9 | 94% | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 10 | PAU | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 3.2 | 83% | 69% | 36% | 9.2 | 36% | 4.6 | 77% | 26.1 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 51% |
| 11 | Dunkerque | 36 | 46 | 33% | 1.3 | 56 | 46 | +10 | 2.8 | 72% | 53% | 31% | 8.4 | 28% | 4.0 | 58% | 26.6 | 89% | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 57% |
| 12 | Guingamp | 36 | 40 | 28% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.8 | 69% | 58% | 36% | 9.1 | 33% | 4.9 | 71% | 28.3 | 86% | 11 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 56% |
| 13 | Grenoble | 36 | 39 | 22% | 1.1 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 2.1 | 58% | 39% | 19% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 51% | 26.6 | 83% | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 14 | Clermont Foot | 36 | 38 | 25% | 1.1 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 2.4 | 61% | 47% | 25% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.0 | 60% | 26.0 | 81% | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 15 | Boulogne | 36 | 37 | 25% | 1.0 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 2.5 | 61% | 50% | 22% | 8.9 | 42% | 4.5 | 69% | 27.9 | 89% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 16 | Laval | 38 | 37 | 18% | 1.0 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 2.2 | 66% | 34% | 21% | 10.2 | 58% | 4.2 | 54% | 29.6 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 | Nancy | 36 | 37 | 25% | 1.0 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 2.5 | 67% | 53% | 28% | 9.1 | 50% | 4.4 | 61% | 29.7 | 94% | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 42% |
| 18 | Bastia | 34 | 28 | 15% | 0.8 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 2.0 | 59% | 21% | 21% | 8.8 | 24% | 5.3 | 79% | 29.3 | 82% | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 19 | Amiens | 36 | 27 | 19% | 0.8 | 41 | 69 | -28 | 3.1 | 72% | 58% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 4.2 | 69% | 28.1 | 86% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 47% |
| 20 | Rouen | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 6.5 | 0% | 6.5 | 100% | 34.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 43% |