Venezia's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, including a 2-0 win over Palermo, sets the tone for this matchup against Lecce. However, Lecce has been on a 2-game winning run, with a 1-0 victory over Genoa in their last outing. The model predicts a home win for Venezia, with a 55% probability, making it the favourite to win.
The expected total goals for this match is 2.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%. Venezia has been scoring an average of 2.33 goals at home, with an average of 0.33 goals conceded. Lecce, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 1 goal away from home, with an average of 1.14 goals conceded against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Home or Draw (79.9%), Under 3.5 (79.5%), and Over 21.5 fouls (77.4%). The home win percentage is 55%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 17%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Home win, failed to materialise, with the away side clinching a 2-0 victory. The model had assigned a 54 % probability to a home win, but the result was an away win, so the favourite was wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the actual result. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.8 %, Under 6.5 at 99.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2 %, Under 5.5 at 97.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5 %. Venezia’s recent form had been a losing streak, while Lecce entered on a three-game winning run, a narrative that the final score echoed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Venezia win✗ Miss
54.0%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 2.02
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.22
1xBet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Dafabet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.21
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Dafabet
3.25
Lecce win✓ Hit
17.9%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 4.07
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.34
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.30
Unibet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Venezia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.83
2.40
0.60
2.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
2.00
0.80
2.14
0.71
1.88
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
2.40
0.87
2.62
0.50
2.14
1.29
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.23
0.67
1.20
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
1.50
0.12
1.62
0.50
1.38
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.93
1.29
0.71
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.5%
@ 1.39+0.7%
Under 1.5
31.5%
@ 2.93-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.8%
@ 2.22-2.0%
Under 2.5
59.2%
@ 1.67+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Pinnacle
2.28
SBO
2.26
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Under
1xBet
1.72
SBO
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.4%
@ 4.05-2.9%
Under 3.5
79.6%
@ 1.23+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.20
888Sport
4.20
Under
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.7%
@ 1.92-4.9%
No
56.3%
@ 1.82+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
No
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Betano
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.0%@ 6.07+6.4%
1-1
13.0%@ 5.79+5.0%
2-0
11.6%@ 8.70+6.3%
0-0
11.0%@ 7.68+5.0%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.28+3.5%
0-1
6.5%@ 9.51+1.7%
3-0
5.9%@ 16.59+3.2%
3-1
4.6%@ 16.59+1.9%
Venezia goals ↓
Lecce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.5%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.1%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.9%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Venezia goals (down), columns = Lecce goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Venezia is 0.12 points better than Lecce in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Venezia is 0.26 goals better than Lecce in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Venezia is 0.16 goals worse than Lecce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Venezia
For 5.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecce
For 3.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Venezia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.3
9.7
4.3
4.4
4.1
29.8
31.4
28.3
vs Stronger (4)
9.2
10.7
5.0
2.5
2.3
3.0
27.0
27.3
26.0
vs Similar (30)
8.7
7.9
9.4
4.3
4.9
3.8
30.5
33.9
27.6
vs Weaker (16)
9.5
8.1
10.9
4.7
4.4
5.0
29.2
28.4
30.0
% over line
44%
28%
60%
64%
72%
56%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
56%
72%
40%
36%
28%
44%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.0
10.8
3.7
4.0
3.4
25.5
26.0
25.0
vs Stronger (26)
10.0
8.5
11.5
3.2
3.5
2.8
22.8
23.4
22.2
vs Similar (24)
9.7
9.4
9.9
4.2
4.4
4.0
28.5
28.8
28.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
40%
72%
48%
48%
48%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
44%
60%
28%
52%
52%
52%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.0
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Inter
9.3
Atalanta
9.1
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Genoa
8.6
Lazio
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
AS Roma
4.3
Venezia
4.3
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.8
Juventus
3.6
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.8
Bologna
28.4
AS Roma
28.3
Fiorentina
28.1
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.7
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.1
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.4%
@ 2.01-2.9%
Under 9.5
56.6%
@ 1.73+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.9%
@ 1.40-16.6%
Under 3.5
50.1%
@ 2.77+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.70
Superbet
2.65
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
77.0%
Under 21.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Venezia or Draw✗ Miss
79.9%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
+3.5%
54%
28%
18%
covers Venezia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Venezia or Lecce✓ Hit
69.5%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
-1.2%
54%
28%
18%
covers Venezia + Lecce
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Draw or Lecce✓ Hit
50.6%
Avg Implied 52.9% · @ 1.79
Edge
-2.3%
54%
28%
18%
covers Draw + Lecce
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Betano
1.83
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Venezia over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
74.4%
@ 1.24-0.9%
Under
25.6%
@ 3.78+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.09
888Sport
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Venezia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.5%
@ 2.20-3.0%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.63+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.26
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
888Sport
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Venezia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.7%
@ 4.92-3.2%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.15+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
888Sport
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Venezia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 11.03-3.6%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Lecce over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.0%
@ 1.53-6.8%
Under
46.0%
@ 2.38+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Under
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.47
888Sport
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Lecce over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
18.3%
@ 3.68-7.1%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.25+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.98
Marathonbet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Lecce over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 9.93-5.0%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
9.70
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Lecce over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 25.25-3.0%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Bet365
29.00
888Sport
29.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Venezia, so a minus line means Venezia give that many goals of a start and Lecce receive them. At -1, Venezia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Venezia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Venezia)Actual: Lecce
Venezia -2
9.2%
@ 8.57-1.3%
Draw -2
15.3%
@ 5.75-0.4%
Lecce +2
75.5%
@ 1.22+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.60
Away
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Venezia)Actual: Lecce
Venezia -1
24.5%
@ 3.81+0.7%
Draw -1
24.9%
@ 3.55-0.6%
Lecce +1
50.6%
@ 1.78-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Draw
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.55
Unibet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.82
Unibet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Handicap +1 (Venezia)Actual: Lecce
Venezia +1
79.9%
@ 1.23+6.6%
Draw +1
13.7%
@ 5.33-3.3%
Lecce -1
6.4%
@ 9.20-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Draw
Superbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Unibet
5.40
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Handicap +2 (Venezia)Actual: Draw
Venezia +2
93.6%
@ 1.04+5.4%
Draw +2
5.0%
@ 11.25-3.2%
Lecce -2
1.5%
@ 25.50-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
26.00
Unibet
21.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Venezia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.33
1.13
0.33
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.33
0.71
0.57
0.88
0.12
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.33
1.50
0.12
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.47
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.56
0.00
0.62
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.29
1.00
0.14
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.4%
@ 1.47+1.4%
Under 0.5
34.6%
@ 2.61-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
SBO
1.51
BetVictor
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.76
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.72
William Hil
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.3%
@ 3.15-2.6%
Under 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.34+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.33
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.4%
@ 8.17-3.0%
Under 2.5
91.6%
@ 1.06+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
9.00
Superbet
8.50
1xBet
8.20
Under
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Venezia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.5%
@ 1.96-5.1%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.77+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Under
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.82
Superbet
1.78
Unibet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Venezia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 5.79-6.6%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.10+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Superbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Venezia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 14.50-4.8%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Lecce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.2%
@ 2.64+5.9%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.44-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
Unibet
2.75
1xBet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
Superbet
2.67
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Lecce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 9.77-0.4%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.02+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Superbet
9.90
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Lecce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 29.50-2.2%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Venezia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.27
0.27
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.47
1.43
0.14
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.53
1.12
0.38
1.14
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.06
0.94
0.12
1.00
0.00
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.29
0.57
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Venezia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.31+1.9%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.35-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 2.38-0.8%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.55+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
888Sport
2.45
Superbet
2.42
William Hil
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
Under
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 5.47-2.8%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.13+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
888Sport
5.75
Superbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Venezia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.3%
@ 1.71-3.9%
Under
49.7%
@ 2.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.66
Under
1xBet
2.09
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.96
Venezia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.28-8.3%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.18+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.40
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Venezia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 11.50-5.7%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Lecce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.5%
@ 2.23+6.9%
Under
51.5%
@ 1.59-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Superbet
2.20
Under
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Lecce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
12.6%
@ 7.35-0.0%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.06+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.60
Superbet
7.20
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Lecce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 19.50-2.5%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.6%
1.04
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
93.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.06
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.02
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
+0.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
1.18
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.13
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.4%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.43
-
+19.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
81.7%
1.25
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
79.9%
1.24
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
79.9%
1.23
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.20
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.7%
1.24
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
75.5%
1.22
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.18
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.4%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.8%
1.31
Betano
1.35
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.34
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.9%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.15
-
-
-
-8.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Venezia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
John Yeboah33%
R. Sagrado33%
Akor Adams25%
S. Sohm0%
Thierry Correia0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
Ridgeciano Haps0%
Gianluca Busio0%
Kike Pérez0%
Filip Stanković0%
Antoine Hainaut0%
A. Rrahmani0%
R. Halhal0%
J. Schingtienne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kike Pérez33%
J. Schingtienne33%
R. Sagrado33%
Ridgeciano Haps25%
S. Sohm0%
Thierry Correia0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
John Yeboah0%
Gianluca Busio0%
Akor Adams0%
Filip Stanković0%
Antoine Hainaut0%
A. Rrahmani0%
R. Halhal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Akor Adams25%
S. Sohm0%
Thierry Correia0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
John Yeboah0%
Ridgeciano Haps0%
Gianluca Busio0%
Kike Pérez0%
Filip Stanković0%
Antoine Hainaut0%
A. Rrahmani0%
R. Halhal0%
J. Schingtienne0%
R. Sagrado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Akor Adams50%
John Yeboah33%
Gianluca Busio33%
Kike Pérez33%
S. Sohm0%
Thierry Correia0%
Armel Bella-Kotchap0%
Ridgeciano Haps0%
Filip Stanković0%
Antoine Hainaut0%
A. Rrahmani0%
R. Halhal0%
J. Schingtienne0%
R. Sagrado0%
Lecce
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olaf Gorter33%
Tiago Gabriel33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Danilo Veiga33%
Kialonda Gaspar33%
Oumar Ngom33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Willem Geubbels33%
Nikola Štulić33%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Venezia's squad is €45m more valuable than Lecce's (€117m vs €72m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Venezia's attack is €19m more valuable than Lecce's (€39m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Venezia's midfield is €16m more valuable than Lecce's (€31m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Venezia's defence is €10m more valuable than Lecce's (€47m vs €37m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Fiorentina