The contest between Bologna and Lazio is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 33 % and 36 % respectively, while a draw is 31 %. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 28 % of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6 % chance. Bologna, at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 0.71 goals scored and conceded. Lazio, playing away, averages 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5 % with a 3 % edge), Under 5.5 (98.4 % with a 4 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4 % with a 5 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 % with a 4 % edge), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 % with a 3 % edge). Bologna has recently drawn 3-3 with Inter, while Lazio returned from a 2-1 win over Pisa.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Lazio edged Bologna 1-0, extending their two-game winning streak. The favourite, Away win, came with a 36 % probability and the outcome matched the forecast. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away side’s triumph. Every suggested pick also hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.9 %, Under 6.5 at 99.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Under 5.5 at 98.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.9 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7 %, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7 %. The model’s selections performed flawlessly, with no misses.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bologna win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 41.7% · @ 2.28
Edge
-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Betano
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.15
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.32
Dafabet
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Marathonbet
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Lazio win✓ Hit
35.8%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.38
Edge
+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.53
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bologna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.50
0.87
1.53
1.60
1.47
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
2.31
1.00
2.29
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.73
0.71
0.71
1.62
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.27
1.40
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.25
0.86
1.57
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.73
1.86
1.00
0.62
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.39+0.3%
Under 1.5
32.0%
@ 2.92-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.2%
@ 2.23-2.6%
Under 2.5
59.8%
@ 1.67+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
SBO
2.31
1xBet
2.29
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Under
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
@ 4.06-3.3%
Under 3.5
80.1%
@ 1.23+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.40
Betfair
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
@ 1.89-1.7%
No
52.2%
@ 1.85+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.92
888Sport
1.91
William Hil
1.91
10Bet
1.90
No
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.88
Unibet
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.72+6.7%
0-0
11.4%@ 7.81+5.7%
0-1 ✓
10.5%@ 8.30+5.1%
1-0
10.0%@ 6.50+3.1%
1-2
7.8%@ 11.01+3.7%
2-1
7.4%@ 8.57+2.2%
0-2
6.9%@ 15.56+4.1%
2-0
6.3%@ 10.07+1.9%
Bologna goals ↓
Lazio goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
6.9%
2.7%
0.8%
1
10.0%
15%
7.8%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.3%
7.4%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.4%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bologna goals (down), columns = Lazio goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Bologna is 0.05 points better than Lazio in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Bologna is 0.21 goals better than Lazio in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Bologna is 0.16 goals worse than Lazio in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Bologna is 4.7 percentage points better than Lazio in terms of average possession (55% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bologna
For 4.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.1 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lazio
For 3.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bologna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.6
9.1
4.0
3.5
4.4
28.4
26.7
30.1
vs Stronger (17)
9.2
9.7
8.8
3.6
3.3
3.9
28.6
27.1
30.2
vs Similar (31)
9.5
9.7
9.2
4.2
3.6
4.8
28.5
26.5
30.2
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
8.0
9.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
26.0
25.0
27.0
% over line
44%
44%
44%
54%
44%
64%
86%
80%
92%
% under line
56%
56%
56%
46%
56%
36%
14%
20%
8%
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.0
8.1
5.2
5.5
5.0
24.9
25.6
24.3
vs Stronger (6)
6.3
6.3
6.3
5.0
6.7
3.3
24.3
23.7
25.0
vs Similar (21)
9.3
10.1
8.5
5.7
6.5
4.9
24.3
25.9
22.8
vs Weaker (23)
8.5
8.8
8.2
4.9
4.3
5.5
25.7
25.8
25.6
% over line
32%
32%
32%
76%
80%
72%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
68%
68%
68%
24%
20%
28%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Bologna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Inter
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Venezia
9.1
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Genoa
8.6
Lazio
8.6
Torino
8.5
Parma
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Sassuolo
4.3
AS Roma
4.3
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.2
Venezia
29.7
Bologna
28.4
AS Roma
28.3
Fiorentina
28.1
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.5
Torino
24.4
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.3
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
38.4%
@ 2.35-1.1%
Under 9.5
61.6%
@ 1.53+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.30
Under
Unibet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.2%
@ 1.40-8.3%
Under 3.5
41.8%
@ 2.77+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.00
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.50
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.9%
Under 21.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bologna or Draw✗ Miss
64.7%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.32
Edge
-7.1%
33%
31%
36%
covers Bologna + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bologna or Lazio✓ Hit
66.4%
Avg Implied 70.0% · @ 1.35
Edge
-3.6%
33%
31%
36%
covers Bologna + Lazio
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Draw or Lazio✓ Hit
69.0%
Avg Implied 58.3% · @ 1.62
Edge
+10.7%
33%
31%
36%
covers Draw + Lazio
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
SBO
1.64
Superbet
1.64
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bologna over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.4%
@ 1.28-11.2%
Under
38.6%
@ 3.40+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.45
888Sport
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Bologna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 2.41-14.1%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.53+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.41
BetVictor
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
888Sport
1.53
Bologna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 5.63-9.4%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.12+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.80
888Sport
5.75
Superbet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bologna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 13.62-5.4%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Under
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Lazio over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.4%
@ 1.44-0.2%
Under
35.6%
@ 2.63+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.79
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.62
Lazio over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.7%
@ 3.19-1.6%
Under
72.3%
@ 1.32+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.41
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
888Sport
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Lazio over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 8.56-2.3%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.05+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
9.50
1xBet
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Lazio over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 22.50-2.2%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bologna, so a minus line means Bologna give that many goals of a start and Lazio receive them. At -1, Bologna must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bologna win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bologna)Actual: Lazio
Bologna -2
3.2%
@ 10.30-5.6%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 6.47-5.4%
Lazio +2
88.3%
@ 1.17+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Unibet
9.50
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.25
Away
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Handicap -1 (Bologna)Actual: Lazio
Bologna -1
11.7%
@ 4.51-8.3%
Draw -1
19.3%
@ 3.75-4.8%
Lazio +1
69.0%
@ 1.62+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Unibet
4.30
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Handicap +1 (Bologna)Actual: Draw
Bologna +1
64.7%
@ 1.31-4.1%
Draw +1
21.1%
@ 4.72+2.0%
Lazio -1
14.3%
@ 7.43+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Bologna)Actual: Bologna
Bologna +2
85.7%
@ 1.06-0.2%
Draw +2
10.1%
@ 9.75+0.7%
Lazio -2
4.2%
@ 19.50-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bologna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.20
0.73
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.23
0.29
1.29
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.13
0.14
0.29
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.57
0.40
0.80
0.13
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.75
0.43
1.00
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (15)
0.20
0.33
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.8%
@ 1.46+2.7%
Under 0.5
33.2%
@ 2.61-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
SBO
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.5%
@ 3.18-2.0%
Under 1.5
72.5%
@ 1.33+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.39
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.4%
@ 8.48-2.6%
Under 2.5
91.6%
@ 1.05+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
William Hil
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bologna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.2%
@ 2.08-1.6%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.69+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Unibet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Bologna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 6.42-4.8%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.08+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.70
Unibet
6.40
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Bologna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 16.50-3.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Lazio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 2.45-2.6%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.50+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Lazio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 8.60+0.1%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.04-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
9.10
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Lazio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 24.00-2.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bologna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.80
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.08
0.71
1.00
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.60
0.57
0.43
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.40
1.43
0.57
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.30+1.4%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.34-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Under
Betano
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Unibet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.5%
@ 2.38+0.2%
Under 1.5
60.5%
@ 1.54-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.45
888Sport
2.45
10Bet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Bet365
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.5%
@ 5.44-2.6%
Under 2.5
85.5%
@ 1.13+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Superbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bologna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 1.76-0.8%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.97+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.96
Superbet
1.92
Bologna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.5%
@ 4.69-3.3%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.15+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Bologna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 12.50-4.5%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Lazio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.9%
@ 2.04+1.2%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.71-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Lazio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 6.28-2.0%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.09+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Lazio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 16.38-3.6%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.02
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.8%
1.12
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.3%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+11.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.4%
1.17
Unibet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
80.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.12
-
-
-
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.3%
1.46
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.40
-
+13.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
75.3%
1.53
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
888Sport
1.53
+14.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.4%
1.30
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.2%
1.30
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.5%
1.33
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.3%
1.32
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bologna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Riccardo Orsolini27%
Santiago Castro20%
Jonathan Rowe20%
Federico Bernardeschi18%
Jens Odgaard18%
Thijs Dallinga14%
João Mário13%
Nicolò Cambiaghi10%
Giovanni Fabbian10%
Tommaso Pobega8%
Emil Holm6%
Remo Freuler2%
Jhon Lucumí2%
Nikola Moro2%
Juan Miranda2%
Lewis Ferguson2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Martin Vitík0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eivind Helland29%
Ibrahim Sulemana25%
Emil Holm24%
Martin Vitík23%
Juan Miranda23%
Jhon Lucumí20%
Lewis Ferguson19%
Federico Ravaglia17%
Lorenzo De Silvestri17%
Charalampos Lykogiannis17%
Remo Freuler15%
Ciro Immobile14%
Federico Bernardeschi14%
João Mário13%
Tommaso Pobega11%
Łukasz Skorupski10%
Nicolò Cambiaghi10%
Santiago Castro8%
Jonathan Rowe7%
Nadir Zortea7%
Simon Sohm6%
Riccardo Orsolini6%
Nicolò Casale6%
Thijs Dallinga6%
Benjamín Domínguez5%
Jens Odgaard5%
Torbjørn Heggem3%
Nikola Moro2%
Giovanni Fabbian0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Emil Holm29%
Benjamín Domínguez16%
Nicolò Cambiaghi15%
Jonathan Rowe10%
Nadir Zortea9%
Thijs Dallinga8%
Juan Miranda7%
Santiago Castro6%
Charalampos Lykogiannis6%
Jens Odgaard5%
Remo Freuler5%
Federico Bernardeschi5%
Tommaso Pobega3%
Jhon Lucumí2%
Nikola Moro2%
Riccardo Orsolini2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
João Mário0%
Lewis Ferguson0%
Martin Vitík0%
Giovanni Fabbian0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Riccardo Orsolini29%
Santiago Castro20%
Jens Odgaard15%
Jonathan Rowe12%
Federico Bernardeschi11%
Giovanni Fabbian10%
Tommaso Pobega8%
Thijs Dallinga8%
Nikola Moro2%
Juan Miranda2%
Lewis Ferguson2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Jhon Lucumí0%
Remo Freuler0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Nicolò Cambiaghi0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Martin Vitík0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Lazio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davide Frattesi67%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matteo Cancellieri67%
Boulaye Dia33%
Nicolò Rovella33%
Mattia Zaccagni33%
Oliver Provstgaard33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Boulaye Dia33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenneth Taylor33%
Matteo Cancellieri33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Bologna's squad is €22m less valuable than Lazio's (€218m vs €240m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Bologna's attack is €45m more valuable than Lazio's (€104m vs €60m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Bologna's midfield is €52m less valuable than Lazio's (€34m vs €86m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Bologna's defence is €14m less valuable than Lazio's (€79m vs €93m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina