Fiorentina vs AS Roma Result & Analysis

Fiorentina are the clear favourite, with a 46% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of an AS Roma win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%. Fiorentina, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Roma, on the road, average only 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 89%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.7%, Over 3.5 cards at 71.7%, Under 10.5 corners at 71.1% and Under 3.5 goals at 70.9% (miss). Each pick is listed with its exact probability.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, a home win for Fiorentina at 46 percent, failed to materialise, leaving the match to finish 2-2 and a draw. Fiorentina, still rattled after two straight defeats, could not overturn AS Roma’s five-game winning streak. The model’s selection for a home win was wrong, while its other picks all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 89 percent, Over 2.5 cards at 86.5 percent, Under 11.5 corners at 80.7 percent, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.9 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 76.7 percent, Over 3.5 cards at 71.7 percent, Under 10.5 corners at 71.1 percent. Only the Under 3.5 goals pick, at 70.9 percent, missed. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely 2-1 outcome with a 13 percent chance.