The model favours an away win, with a 59 % chance for AS Roma, 26 % for a draw and 16 % for Lecce. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 13.4 % probability. Lecce, playing at home against a stronger opponent, scores only 0.14 goals per game while conceding 1.71. AS Roma, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.36 goals scored and 0.91 conceded. Recent form shows Lecce on a three-game winning streak, last beating Venezia 2-0, while Roma continues a five-game run, last defeating Hellas Verona 2-0. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.2 % with a 5 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.1 % with a 6 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.0 % with a 3 % edge) and Home under 2.5 goals (96.3 % with a 3 % edge).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as AS Roma secured a 0-4 away victory, extending their five-game winning streak while Lecce returned from a defeat. The pre-match favourite, Away win, carried a 57% probability and was confirmed by the result. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.8%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%) were correct, as were Home under 3.5 goals (99.2%) and Under 6.5 (99.1%). Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.3%) and Home under 2.5 goals (95.7%) also succeeded, while Under 5.5 (97.1%) was a hit. The only miss was Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lecce winâś— Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied 12.7% · @ 7.52
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.95
Dafabet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Betano
7.70
Drawâś— Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 22.1% · @ 4.30
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.45
1xBet
4.44
Pinnacle
4.39
AS Roma winâś“ Hit
56.9%
Avg Implied 65.2% · @ 1.46
Edge
-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Lecce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.20
0.71
1.21
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
1.53
0.14
1.71
0.50
1.38
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.87
1.29
0.71
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Roma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.93
2.33
0.60
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.93
1.21
2.25
0.62
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.94
0.69
2.43
0.57
1.56
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.8%
@ 1.32-0.7%
Under 1.5
29.2%
@ 3.30+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.44
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.7%
@ 2.01-3.9%
Under 2.5
56.3%
@ 1.82+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.03
Unibet
2.02
Under
1xBet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.6%
@ 3.49-4.3%
Under 3.5
77.4%
@ 1.29+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.62
Superbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.8%
@ 2.17+1.8%
No
55.2%
@ 1.64-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
No
William Hil
1.70
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.4%@ 5.43+5.0%
1-1
12.5%@ 7.59+6.5%
0-2
12.0%@ 5.89+4.2%
0-0
10.0%@ 9.77+5.3%
1-2
9.3%@ 7.89+3.5%
0-3
6.6%@ 9.39+1.7%
1-0
5.8%@ 14.70+2.7%
1-3
5.1%@ 12.19+1.4%
Lecce goals ↓
AS Roma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
13%
12%
6.6%
2.7%
1
5.8%
12%
9.3%
5.1%
2.1%
2
2.7%
4.4%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
3
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lecce goals (down), columns = AS Roma goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Lecce is 0.92 points worse than AS Roma in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Lecce is 0.82 goals worse than AS Roma in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Lecce is 0.50 goals worse than AS Roma in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Lecce is 14.7 percentage points worse than AS Roma in terms of average possession (42% vs 56%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lecce or Drawâś— Miss
46.2%
Avg Implied 35.0% · @ 2.71
Edge
+11.3%
16%
27%
57%
covers Lecce + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Superbet
2.77
William Hil
2.75
SBO
2.72
Lecce or AS Romaâś“ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied 78.2% · @ 1.21
Edge
-6.7%
16%
27%
57%
covers Lecce + AS Roma
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Draw or AS Romaâś“ Hit
82.2%
Avg Implied 86.8% · @ 1.09
Edge
-4.6%
16%
27%
57%
covers Draw + AS Roma
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
1xBet
1.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lecce over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
53.5%
@ 1.89+4.3%
Under
46.5%
@ 1.83-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
10Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Lecce over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
17.9%
@ 5.50+1.0%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.12-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.55
Unibet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Under
1xBet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Lecce over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 17.00-1.4%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Lecce over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 43.67-1.5%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
65.00
Bet365
51.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
AS Roma over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.9%
@ 1.12-5.3%
Under
22.1%
@ 5.55+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
AS Roma over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.5%
@ 1.67-11.6%
Under
55.5%
@ 2.13+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.12
AS Roma over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.3%
@ 3.09-10.9%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.34+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.24
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.12
10Bet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Under
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
AS Roma over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
6.7%
@ 6.59-7.5%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.09+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lecce, so a minus line means Lecce give that many goals of a start and AS Roma receive them. At -1, Lecce must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lecce win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lecce)Actual: AS Roma
Lecce -2
1.2%
@ 77.67+0.0%
Draw -2
4.4%
@ 23.67+0.3%
AS Roma +2
94.4%
@ 1.01-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
101.00
Bet365
67.00
Superbet
65.00
Draw
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Away
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Handicap -1 (Lecce)Actual: AS Roma
Lecce -1
5.6%
@ 16.92+0.3%
Draw -1
12.2%
@ 7.53+0.3%
AS Roma +1
82.2%
@ 1.08-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
17.00
Marathonbet
8.60
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.15
Away
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap +1 (Lecce)Actual: AS Roma
Lecce +1
46.2%
@ 2.68+12.6%
Draw +1
25.2%
@ 3.34-1.8%
AS Roma -1
28.6%
@ 2.30-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.80
Betfair
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
10Bet
2.62
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Away
Betfair
2.38
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Handicap +2 (Lecce)Actual: AS Roma
Lecce +2
71.4%
@ 1.56+13.5%
Draw +2
16.9%
@ 4.19-4.6%
AS Roma -2
11.6%
@ 4.39-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.61
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lecce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.43
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.60
0.00
0.71
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.27
1.00
0.14
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Roma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.27
1.00
0.20
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.12
1.00
0.29
0.56
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.4%
@ 1.40+0.7%
Under 0.5
32.6%
@ 2.82-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Under
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.89
1xBet
2.83
Marathonbet
2.83
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.2%
@ 2.90-0.1%
Under 1.5
67.8%
@ 1.38+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
Betano
3.05
1xBet
2.96
Marathonbet
2.96
William Hil
2.90
Under
Superbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 7.51-2.2%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.07+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
William Hil
7.50
Under
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lecce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.1%
@ 3.45+6.1%
Under
66.9%
@ 1.28-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.79
Marathonbet
3.48
Unibet
3.45
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Under
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Lecce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 12.75-0.8%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Lecce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 70.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
70.00
Under
No market prices yet.
AS Roma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.9%
@ 1.65-5.4%
Under
49.1%
@ 2.13+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.66
Unibet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
AS Roma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
15.3%
@ 4.16-6.9%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.19+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
Unibet
4.20
Betano
4.20
1xBet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
AS Roma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
3.3%
@ 10.25-5.9%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lecce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.21
0.79
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (15)
0.07
0.93
0.14
1.00
0.00
0.88
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.60
0.29
0.57
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (AS Roma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AS Roma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.67
1.33
0.40
0.80
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.79
1.25
0.50
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.56
1.43
0.29
1.00
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.25+1.0%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.68-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Betano
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.3%
@ 2.21+0.8%
Under 1.5
56.7%
@ 1.63-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Bet365
2.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 4.87-2.3%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.16+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lecce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.79+4.4%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.40-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.77
1xBet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
Lecce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 10.80+0.1%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.04-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Lecce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 32.50-1.3%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
AS Roma over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
64.1%
@ 1.45-0.2%
Under
35.9%
@ 2.61+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Superbet
2.55
AS Roma over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 3.09-6.0%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.32+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
AS Roma over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 7.53-6.5%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.05+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.7%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+4.0%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.9%
âś— Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.4%
âś“ Hit
Away +2 handicap
94.4%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-0.3%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+6.5%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+0.8%
âś“ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+7.5%
âś— Miss
Under 4.5
91.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+5.4%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-0.1%
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.07
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+2.2%
âś— Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+6.9%
âś— Miss
Under 11.5 corners
83.2%
1.23
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+8.7%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+2.3%
âś“ Hit
Draw or Away
82.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-4.6%
âś“ Hit
Away +1 handicap
82.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-0.6%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
82.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-1.0%
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.7%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+9.9%
âś— Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
80.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
+10.9%
âś— Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.10
-
-
-
-0.9%
âś“ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-5.3%
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
77.4%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+4.3%
âś— Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.32
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
+6.0%
âś“ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+1.0%
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
1.48
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
-
+11.7%
âś— Miss
Under 10.5 corners
74.2%
1.41
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
+8.7%
âś“ Hit
Home or Away
71.6%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-6.7%
âś“ Hit
Home +2 handicap
71.4%
1.56
Superbet
1.61
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
+13.5%
âś— Miss
Over 1.5
70.8%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.32
-0.7%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Lecce's squad is €399m less valuable than AS Roma's (€72m vs €471m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Lecce's attack is €118m less valuable than AS Roma's (€20m vs €138m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Lecce's midfield is €102m less valuable than AS Roma's (€16m vs €118m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Lecce's defence is €178m less valuable than AS Roma's (€37m vs €215m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina