The Pythia prediction model rates Sporting CP as the clear favourite to win this match, with a 70% probability of victory, largely due to Estrela's struggles at home against stronger opponents, with an average of 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Sporting CP's strong away form against weaker opponents, averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded, further supports this prediction.
The model predicts a 20% chance of a draw and a 10% chance of an Estrela home win. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely scoreline being 0-2 in favour of Sporting CP, with a 12.7% probability.
The model's selection is an away win for Sporting CP. In addition to this, the model suggests selecting Over 21.5 fouls (90.4%), Over 3.5 cards (83.6%, with a 25% edge), and Over 1.5 (80.4% probability).
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Estrela pulled off a 2-2 draw against the previously unbeaten Sporting CP, extending their own run of draws. The actual result was far from the predicted one, as Sporting CP's 76% pre-match probability of winning was left wanting. The model's selection, the away win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks were spot on, with Over 21.5 fouls, Over 3.5 cards, and Over 1.5 all hitting their marks, boasting probabilities of 90.4%, 83.6%, and 83.5% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Estrela winâś— Miss
7.4%
Avg Implied 9.0% · @ 10.43
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
12.50
Betfair
12.00
Pinnacle
11.31
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.90
Drawâś“ Hit
16.2%
Avg Implied 16.3% · @ 5.79
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.45
Pinnacle
6.44
Dafabet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Sporting CP winâś— Miss
76.4%
Avg Implied 74.7% · @ 1.26
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Dafabet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Estrela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.77
1.36
1.36
1.06
2.12
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
2.30
1.00
1.50
1.17
2.83
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.30
1.00
1.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.90
2.31
0.81
1.86
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
2.52
0.96
2.75
0.75
2.27
1.18
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
@ 1.18+4.2%
Under 1.5
16.5%
@ 4.52-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Betano
4.60
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.9%
@ 1.61+3.4%
Under 2.5
38.1%
@ 2.27-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Under
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.32
888Sport
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.6%
@ 2.52+2.3%
Under 3.5
60.4%
@ 1.50-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
Superbet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.56
1xBet
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.3%
@ 2.04+0.7%
No
53.7%
@ 1.71-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
No
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.9%@ 5.88+5.3%
0-3
10.8%@ 7.28+4.6%
0-1
9.6%@ 6.85+3.0%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.33+3.5%
1-1
7.8%@ 10.08+3.3%
1-3
7.4%@ 10.21+3.0%
0-4
6.8%@ 11.33+2.8%
0-0
4.8%@ 14.52+1.7%
Estrela goals ↓
Sporting CP goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
9.6%
13%
11%
6.8%
1
2.1%
7.8%
8.9%
7.4%
4.6%
2
1.0%
2.4%
3.0%
2.5%
1.6%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Estrela goals (down), columns = Sporting CP goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Estrela is 1.53 points worse than Sporting CP in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 2.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Estrela is 1.50 goals worse than Sporting CP in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 2.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Estrela is 0.94 goals worse than Sporting CP in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Estrela is 15.0 percentage points worse than Sporting CP in terms of average possession (47% vs 62%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Estrela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.71
0.50
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.10
0.25
0.75
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.55
0.90
0.40
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
0.94
0.19
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.09
0.35
1.25
0.17
0.91
0.55
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Estrela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Estrela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.64
0.86
0.50
1.19
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.20
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.95
0.60
0.90
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.60
1.38
0.62
1.14
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.57
1.00
0.75
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.43
0.61
1.50
0.58
1.36
0.64
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Estrela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.18
+4.2%
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
80.9%
1.47
1xBet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+18.9%
âś“ Hit
Away win
76.4%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Dafabet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+1.7%
âś— Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.1%
1.33
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
+5.3%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Estrela's squad is €394m less valuable than Sporting CP's (€20m vs €414m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Estrela's attack is €141m less valuable than Sporting CP's (€6m vs €146m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Estrela's midfield is €88m less valuable than Sporting CP's (€3m vs €91m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Estrela's defence is €165m less valuable than Sporting CP's (€11m vs €176m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia