This highly anticipated match between Fenerbahçe and Lyon in the UEFA Champions League is finely balanced, with the home side on a 2-game winning run and the away side coming off a convincing 3-0 win against Sparta Praha. Fenerbahçe's recent form has seen them secure victories, but Lyon's potent attack poses a significant threat. The model predicts a home win, with a 39% chance of Fenerbahçe taking all three points and a 35% chance of Lyon emerging victorious. The draw probability stands at 27%.
The expected total goals is 3, indicating a high-scoring encounter. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%. Fenerbahçe's home scoring and conceding averages are 0.67 goals, while Lyon's away scoring and conceding averages are 2.8 and 1.4 goals respectively, when facing similar opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with an Over 1.5 goals total having an 80.8% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls occurring 70% of the time. The home win percentage stands at 39%, the draw percentage at 27%, and the away win percentage at 35%. The model also suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals (80.8%) and Over 21.5 fouls (70%).
Results analysis
A surprising 1-1 draw saw the pre-match favourite, Home win, fall short, with the model’s call proving wrong. The match, featuring Fenerbahçe at home and Lyon away, finished tied, extending Fenerbahçe’s recent run of wins and Lyon’s streak of victories. The model had assigned a 39 % probability to a home win, 27 % to a draw and 34 % to an away win. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 94.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.1 %, Over 2.5 cards at 86.7 %, Home +2 handicap at 84.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 83.6 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 80.3 %, Away +2 handicap at 80.1 %, and Over 1.5 at 79.9 %. All selections were correct, underscoring the model’s strong accuracy in ancillary markets despite the upset.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fenerbahçe win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied 47.3% · @ 1.99
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.09
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.03
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.52
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.70
1xBet
3.66
Dafabet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Pinnacle
3.63
Lyon win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.61
Edge
+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.88
1xBet
3.87
Marathonbet
3.85
Bet365
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fenerbahçe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
1.93
1.36
1.75
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.80
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.12
1.04
2.50
1.30
1.86
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.17
1.94
1.12
1.54
1.23
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.73
1.73
1.57
1.57
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.83
2.20
0.80
1.25
0.88
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
@ 1.23+3.8%
Under 1.5
20.1%
@ 3.92-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Unibet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.08
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.7%
@ 1.77+2.1%
Under 2.5
44.3%
@ 2.04-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
SBO
2.17
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Pinnacle
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.3%
@ 2.88+0.8%
Under 3.5
66.7%
@ 1.39-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.92
888Sport
2.90
Superbet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
@ 1.63+3.0%
No
40.1%
@ 2.15-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.67
888Sport
1.65
10Bet
1.65
William Hil
1.65
No
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.7%@ 6.25+5.6%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.81+3.1%
1-2
8.0%@ 10.78+3.9%
1-0
7.1%@ 7.80+1.5%
0-0
6.6%@ 11.32+2.7%
0-1
6.4%@ 10.78+2.3%
2-0
6.3%@ 9.53+1.7%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.55+2.3%
Fenerbahçe goals ↓
Lyon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
6.4%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
1
7.1%
13%
8.0%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
8.8%
6.1%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.2%
4.4%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fenerbahçe goals (down), columns = Lyon goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
European competition: teams are ranked by a cross-league strength score - each side's domestic attack and defence made comparable via the model's fitted league strengths (stronger leagues weighted up). Each side's actual domestic figures are shown below.
🏆 Cross-league strength
0-100 · adjusted for league strength · 67 teams
Arsenal
100
Manchester City
97
Bayern München
90
Manchester United
89
Liverpool
87
Barcelona
86
Aston Villa
86
Inter
84
Real Madrid
84
Como
82
Borussia Dortmund
82
Paris Saint Germain
81
AS Roma
80
Sporting CP
79
FC Porto
79
Villarreal
78
Napoli
77
VfB Stuttgart
76
Atletico Madrid
76
Lens
76
RB Leipzig
76
Real Betis
74
Lille
71
Lyon
70
Union St. Gilloise
70
Viking
70
Bodo/Glimt
67
Club Brugge KV
67
PSV Eindhoven
66
Galatasaray
64
Slavia Praha
62
Fenerbahçe
60
Feyenoord
60
NEC Nijmegen
58
Omonia Nicosia
56
Kauno Žalgiris
56
Dinamo Zagreb
55
Lech Poznan
54
Gornik Zabrze
53
Shakhtar Donetsk
49
Levski Sofia
49
FC Thun
47
Sabah FA
46
Sparta Praha
45
Slovan Bratislava
45
Aarhus
45
Hapoel Beer Sheva
44
Heart Of Midlothian
43
FK Crvena Zvezda
43
Sturm Graz
43
Celtic
42
Lask Linz
41
Olympiakos Piraeus
41
Universitatea Craiova
39
Mjallby AIF
36
Kairat Almaty
30
Vikingur Reykjavik
29
Celje
25
Shamrock Rovers
22
KuPS
21
Ararat-Armenia
19
AEK Athens FC
15
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11
Larne
10
KI Klaksvik
7
Saburtalo
1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0
Fenerbahçe is 10 pts weaker cross-league than Lyon(60 vs 70 · ranks #32 vs #24 of 67).
Fenerbahçe 2.18 (Turkey: Süper Lig) · Lyon 1.76 (France: Ligue 1). Domestic-league average points per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
Fenerbahçe 2.26 (Turkey: Süper Lig) · Lyon 1.56 (France: Ligue 1). Domestic-league goals scored per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
Fenerbahçe 1.09 (Turkey: Süper Lig) · Lyon 1.18 (France: Ligue 1). Domestic-league goals conceded per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
⏱️ Possession
Not compared for European ties.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fenerbahçe
For 6.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
For 7.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 13.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 14.2 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fenerbahçe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.6
12.1
5.3
6.0
4.5
25.2
26.7
23.8
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
10.0
-
9.0
9.0
-
28.0
28.0
-
vs Similar (9)
10.1
11.2
8.3
6.0
5.7
6.7
27.4
29.0
24.7
vs Weaker (40)
11.7
10.5
12.6
5.0
6.0
4.3
24.7
25.9
23.7
% over line
72%
64%
79%
72%
79%
65%
74%
82%
67%
% under line
28%
36%
21%
28%
21%
35%
26%
18%
33%
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.2
10.2
4.8
4.2
5.4
25.5
25.4
25.7
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
10.0
18.0
7.5
9.0
6.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
vs Similar (19)
11.1
12.4
9.9
4.9
4.2
5.5
27.1
25.8
28.2
vs Weaker (29)
9.3
8.9
9.8
4.5
3.8
5.3
25.1
25.6
24.4
% over line
42%
46%
38%
68%
62%
75%
78%
81%
75%
% under line
58%
54%
62%
32%
38%
25%
22%
19%
25%
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sabah FA
13.0
Viking
11.8
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Larne
11.2
Fenerbahçe
11.0
Slavia Praha
10.8
Bodo/Glimt
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Celtic
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.6
Kairat Almaty
10.5
FC Thun
10.4
RB Leipzig
10.3
Lask Linz
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Mjallby AIF
10.2
Lens
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.2
Lyon
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
FK Crvena Zvezda
10.1
Ararat-Armenia
10.1
KI Klaksvik
10.1
Slovan Bratislava
10.1
Lech Poznan
10.0
Sporting CP
10.0
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
KuPS
9.9
Omonia Nicosia
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Dinamo Zagreb
9.9
Sparta Praha
9.9
Sturm Graz
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.7
Saburtalo
9.7
Lille
9.7
Aarhus
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
9.5
Aston Villa
9.5
Celje
9.4
Union St. Gilloise
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Inter
9.2
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Villarreal
9.1
Real Betis
9.1
Galatasaray
9.1
Universitatea Craiova
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
FC Porto
8.9
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
AEK Athens FC
8.8
AS Roma
8.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.6
Vikingur Reykjavik
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Shamrock Rovers
8.3
Lincoln Red Imps FC
8.2
Kauno Žalgiris
8.0
Como
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ararat-Armenia
6.0
Fenerbahçe
5.8
AEK Athens FC
5.6
Sabah FA
5.6
FC Porto
5.4
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
Sporting CP
5.3
Saburtalo
5.3
Universitatea Craiova
5.1
FC Thun
5.0
Slovan Bratislava
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Vikingur Reykjavik
4.9
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Sparta Praha
4.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
4.8
Celje
4.8
Larne
4.8
Real Betis
4.8
Lyon
4.8
Como
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.7
Sturm Graz
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Galatasaray
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.5
Slavia Praha
4.5
Lens
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
KI Klaksvik
4.4
Viking
4.4
Villarreal
4.3
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
4.3
Lille
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
AS Roma
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Kairat Almaty
4.2
Atletico Madrid
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.1
NEC Nijmegen
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Bayern München
3.9
Aarhus
3.9
Feyenoord
3.9
Lask Linz
3.9
Celtic
3.9
Lech Poznan
3.9
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.7
Kauno Žalgiris
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
Club Brugge KV
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Napoli
3.5
RB Leipzig
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Inter
3.4
KuPS
3.3
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Saburtalo
46.0
Sabah FA
30.6
AEK Athens FC
29.6
AS Roma
28.3
FC Thun
27.9
Hapoel Beer Sheva
27.8
Sporting CP
26.7
Slavia Praha
26.3
Como
26.3
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Porto
25.8
Ararat-Armenia
25.8
Larne
25.6
Lyon
25.5
Fenerbahçe
25.5
Vikingur Reykjavik
25.4
Slovan Bratislava
25.4
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.4
Mjallby AIF
25.3
Lincoln Red Imps FC
25.0
Lens
25.0
Celje
24.9
Universitatea Craiova
24.8
Viking
24.7
Levski Sofia
24.7
Omonia Nicosia
24.6
Villarreal
24.5
Sparta Praha
24.2
Inter
24.1
Real Madrid
24.0
NEC Nijmegen
24.0
Heart Of Midlothian
24.0
Lille
23.9
FK Crvena Zvezda
23.8
Sturm Graz
23.8
Aston Villa
23.7
Real Betis
23.7
Galatasaray
23.7
Lech Poznan
23.7
Aarhus
23.6
Dinamo Zagreb
23.6
Napoli
23.5
Shamrock Rovers
22.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.7
Feyenoord
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Kauno Žalgiris
22.0
KuPS
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Barcelona
21.8
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
Celtic
21.3
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Lask Linz
20.7
Atletico Madrid
20.7
Club Brugge KV
20.0
RB Leipzig
19.9
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Bodo/Glimt
19.2
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
KI Klaksvik
18.3
Bayern München
18.3
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
12.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.0%
@ 1.67+6.7%
Under 9.5
38.0%
@ 2.07-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Under
Marathonbet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.2%
@ 1.65+16.2%
Under 3.5
27.8%
@ 2.11-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Superbet
1.63
Under
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.3%
Under 21.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fenerbahçe or Draw✓ Hit
66.4%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.28
Edge
-7.3%
39%
27%
34%
covers Fenerbahçe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Fenerbahçe or Lyon✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.8%
39%
27%
34%
covers Fenerbahçe + Lyon
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Draw or Lyon✓ Hit
60.5%
Avg Implied 52.4% · @ 1.79
Edge
+8.1%
39%
27%
34%
covers Draw + Lyon
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Unibet
1.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.2%
@ 1.17-1.3%
Under
21.8%
@ 4.53+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.60
Superbet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
888Sport
4.50
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.0%
@ 1.88-4.7%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.85+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Unibet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 3.79-4.9%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.24+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
888Sport
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Pinnacle
3.83
10Bet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Fenerbahçe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 8.30-4.4%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.06+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
888Sport
9.50
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Bet365
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Lyon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.1%
@ 1.36+6.8%
Under
24.9%
@ 2.93-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Superbet
2.92
Lyon over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.4%
@ 2.79+6.9%
Under
59.6%
@ 1.41-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
BetVictor
2.80
888Sport
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Lyon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 6.93+2.9%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.08-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.70
888Sport
7.50
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Lyon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 16.15-0.7%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.02+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Superbet
18.00
Unibet
18.00
Bet365
11.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fenerbahçe, so a minus line means Fenerbahçe give that many goals of a start and Lyon receive them. At -1, Fenerbahçe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fenerbahçe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fenerbahçe)Actual: Lyon
Fenerbahçe -2
7.8%
@ 7.23-4.6%
Draw -2
12.1%
@ 5.65-3.8%
Lyon +2
80.1%
@ 1.26+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Superbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Away
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Fenerbahçe)Actual: Lyon
Fenerbahçe -1
19.9%
@ 3.48-6.0%
Draw -1
19.6%
@ 3.77-4.4%
Lyon +1
60.5%
@ 1.80+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Bet365
3.40
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
Unibet
3.70
Betfair
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Handicap +1 (Fenerbahçe)Actual: Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe +1
66.4%
@ 1.27-4.6%
Draw +1
17.8%
@ 5.28+0.7%
Lyon -1
15.8%
@ 7.63+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Away
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Bet365
7.00
Handicap +2 (Fenerbahçe)Actual: Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe +2
84.2%
@ 1.06-2.3%
Draw +2
10.1%
@ 10.50+1.3%
Lyon -2
5.7%
@ 19.33+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
19.00
Unibet
16.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fenerbahçe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.71
0.79
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (24)
0.79
0.67
0.90
0.70
0.71
0.64
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.71
0.53
1.00
0.46
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.82
0.71
0.86
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
0.33
0.70
0.30
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fenerbahçe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.47
1.21
0.57
1.06
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.33
0.38
1.60
0.60
1.14
0.21
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.24
0.59
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.91
0.86
0.71
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.8%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+13.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
84.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.3%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.1%
1.26
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.9%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
1.17
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.1%
1.36
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.36
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.5%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
+7.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.0%
1.27
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.2%
1.65
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Superbet
1.63
-
-
+16.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fenerbahçe
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Talisca67%
Vedat Muriqi50%
Mason Greenwood38%
Marco Asensio17%
Archie Brown17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Levent Mercan0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fred33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Nélson Semedo25%
Milan Škriniar25%
Romelu Lukaku25%
Mattéo Guendouzi25%
Dorgeles Nene25%
Archie Brown17%
N'Golo Kanté14%
Mason Greenwood12%
Ederson0%
Marco Asensio0%
Mert Müldür0%
Talisca0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Vedat Muriqi0%
Levent Mercan0%
Oğuz Aydın0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levent Mercan33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Mason Greenwood25%
İrfan Can Kahveci20%
Marco Asensio17%
Vedat Muriqi17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Talisca0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
Archie Brown0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Talisca67%
Vedat Muriqi33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Mason Greenwood25%
İsmail Yüksek17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Marco Asensio0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Levent Mercan0%
Archie Brown0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
Lyon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
RM (27)
€1456m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
BAR (30)
€1282m
BM (29)
€1076m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
INT (25)
€694m
AM (25)
€653m
AVL (27)
€536m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
FP (30)
€467m
NAP (33)
€459m
VS (54)
€430m
SC (31)
€414m
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
VIL (24)
€325m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
PE (29)
€280m
RB (25)
€235m
FEY (30)
€229m
CBK (27)
€196m
LEN (27)
€187m
SD (33)
€186m
OP (29)
€175m
SP (38)
€123m
CEL (27)
€116m
FCZ (32)
€115m
USG (26)
€98m
SP (35)
€92m
AAF (26)
€85m
BOD (24)
€75m
DZ (34)
€66m
LP (25)
€58m
NN (29)
€54m
SG (26)
€52m
VIK (27)
€47m
LL (22)
€44m
LS (27)
€38m
UC (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SB (28)
€35m
GZ (27)
€29m
MA (24)
€26m
HOM (30)
€22m
HBS (26)
€20m
SF (24)
€17m
FT (25)
€17m
ON (23)
€15m
CEL (31)
€14m
KŽ (27)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
ARA (26)
€8m
KUP (30)
€7m
SR (31)
€7m
ER (24)
€7m
SAB (22)
€6m
VR (26)
€5m
LAR (23)
€4m
KK (28)
€3m
LRI (25)
€2m
Fenerbahçe's squad is €39m more valuable than Lyon's (€332m vs €293m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
PSG (10)
€638m
MC (9)
€635m
ARS (13)
€608m
BAR (10)
€590m
BM (10)
€554m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
AM (9)
€290m
COM (13)
€261m
AVL (10)
€220m
INT (5)
€220m
FP (11)
€214m
RL (12)
€212m
NAP (12)
€206m
VS (19)
€193m
GAL (9)
€173m
BD (8)
€170m
FEN (14)
€162m
SC (9)
€146m
AR (6)
€138m
LIL (13)
€133m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
LYO (9)
€122m
SD (16)
€115m
PE (11)
€106m
FEY (11)
€93m
CBK (10)
€92m
OP (12)
€84m
FCZ (13)
€62m
CEL (11)
€56m
LEN (8)
€52m
AAF (11)
€44m
SP (14)
€43m
DZ (15)
€33m
USG (10)
€32m
SP (10)
€27m
SG (11)
€26m
NN (11)
€22m
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
SB (12)
€15m
UC (10)
€14m
AAR (10)
€14m
LL (5)
€13m
HOM (12)
€12m
LS (10)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
ON (9)
€7m
CEL (12)
€7m
MA (9)
€7m
SF (7)
€5m
FT (7)
€4m
KŽ (11)
€4m
KA (9)
€4m
SR (14)
€3m
ARA (9)
€3m
VR (12)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
KUP (9)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAR (6)
€1m
KK (9)
€1m
LRI (11)
€1m
Fenerbahçe's attack is €40m more valuable than Lyon's (€162m vs €122m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
BAR (8)
€324m
ARS (4)
€290m
RM (5)
€238m
MU (7)
€236m
INT (10)
€232m
LIV (6)
€201m
BM (6)
€187m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
AM (6)
€155m
BD (7)
€146m
AR (5)
€118m
RL (6)
€109m
FP (6)
€105m
LIL (4)
€102m
NAP (7)
€101m
VS (10)
€92m
SC (9)
€91m
COM (7)
€83m
LYO (8)
€82m
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
PE (5)
€60m
VIL (4)
€52m
OP (6)
€47m
FEY (4)
€43m
USG (7)
€38m
SP (8)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
SP (10)
€27m
BOD (7)
€27m
LEN (5)
€24m
CBK (5)
€23m
FCZ (6)
€21m
CEL (5)
€20m
SD (4)
€19m
AAF (5)
€16m
AAR (10)
€14m
SG (4)
€14m
VIK (5)
€12m
LL (6)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
UC (6)
€10m
LP (3)
€9m
LS (5)
€8m
SB (6)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NN (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
HBS (3)
€5m
HOM (6)
€4m
ON (4)
€3m
KUP (9)
€3m
KA (5)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
SR (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
CEL (4)
€1m
KK (8)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LAR (7)
€1m
LRI (4)
€0m
Fenerbahçe's midfield is €20m less valuable than Lyon's (€62m vs €82m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
ARS (12)
€508m
PSG (11)
€409m
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
BM (13)
€336m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
BD (14)
€214m
AM (10)
€208m
RL (13)
€185m
SC (13)
€176m
AVL (11)
€156m
NAP (14)
€152m
VIL (12)
€148m
FP (13)
€148m
VS (25)
€145m
COM (14)
€144m
PE (13)
€115m
LEN (14)
€112m
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
FEY (15)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
CBK (12)
€81m
LIL (10)
€76m
RB (10)
€70m
SP (20)
€61m
SD (13)
€52m
OP (11)
€44m
CEL (11)
€41m
FCZ (13)
€33m
DZ (17)
€30m
LP (12)
€28m
USG (9)
€28m
BOD (10)
€26m
NN (13)
€26m
AAF (10)
€26m
SP (11)
€22m
LL (11)
€20m
LS (12)
€19m
VIK (12)
€15m
UC (9)
€13m
SB (10)
€13m
SG (11)
€13m
MA (9)
€8m
AAR (8)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
SF (10)
€7m
GZ (10)
€6m
CEL (15)
€6m
HOM (12)
€6m
HBS (10)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
KŽ (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
ER (13)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
SR (10)
€2m
VR (10)
€2m
LAR (10)
€2m
KK (11)
€1m
LRI (10)
€1m
Fenerbahçe's defence is €19m more valuable than Lyon's (€108m vs €89m).
World: UEFA Champions League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full World: UEFA Champions League stats & trends →